{ "ticker": { "uuid": "383c0b07-9a54-4d1a-a125-2d444a3c0524", "symbol": "HLE", "name": "HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.55, "architecture_energy": 33.203, "architecture_maturity": 50.75, "architecture_confidence": 87.004, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.69, "rotation_up": 20.92, "upward_expansion": 3.47, "deceleration": 52.37, "rotation_down": 47.0, "downward_expansion": 74.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.126669, 71.405456, 71.47769, 72.412408 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 71.800003, "trend_reference": 74.431147, "distance_from_trend": -0.03535, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 80.728148, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.110595, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.343921, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.144662, "excess_performance": -0.318909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03535, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041475, "read": "Falling" 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68.091887, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.007082, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.263158, "median_excess_return": -0.0237, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.0925, "worst_return": -0.099585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.037608, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.10256, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.223765, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029568, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.090721, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.166381, "worst_return": -0.127243, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -30.209989, "energy": 20.32102, "activity_lines": [ 71.940001, 71.83091, 71.788517, 73.241641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.099998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 103.1, "trend": 75.20768, "fair_value": 80.679615, "relative_strength": -25.446111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.332511, "energy": 24.295583, "activity_lines": [ 71.7, 71.725455, 71.679503, 72.954583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.800003, "volume": 142, "typical_volume": 76.3, "trend": 74.79605, "fair_value": 80.687131, "relative_strength": -26.001101, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.57882, "energy": 41.509067, "activity_lines": [ 71.040001, 71.374546, 71.472709, 72.605701 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 76.3, "trend": 74.431147, "fair_value": 80.728148, "relative_strength": -25.343921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.549634, "energy": 33.203128, "activity_lines": [ 71.126669, 71.405456, 71.47769, 72.412408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }