{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3840035f-260b-4a89-a2d1-b4c8311f4d3b", "symbol": "TPG", "name": "TPG Telecom Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.082, "architecture_energy": 51.632, "architecture_maturity": 15.958, "architecture_confidence": 94.001, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.51, "rotation_up": 20.96, "upward_expansion": 8.09, "deceleration": 51.01, "rotation_down": 57.74, "downward_expansion": 81.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.582667, 3.607273, 3.757476, 3.832943 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.62, "trend_reference": 3.884467, "distance_from_trend": -0.068083, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.406366, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.178461, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.26726, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.048259, "excess_performance": -0.111965, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068083, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022752, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.178461, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102005, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172673, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090242, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048259, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.724303, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9339179, "relative_activity": 0.495216, "balance": 0.724303, "dry_up": 0.595827, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046643, "annualized_volatility": 0.210434, "from_high_reference": -0.367133, "from_low_reference": 0.057792 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.884467, "fair_value_reference": 4.406366, "structural_low": 3.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.026666, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": 0.007429, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.125285, "worst_return": -0.065844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.015274, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.014818, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.093721, "worst_return": -0.023109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023123, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.000109, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.224144, "worst_return": -0.022758, "sufficient": true }, { 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-46.381375, "energy": 68.538536, "activity_lines": [ 3.670667, 3.782182, 3.93242, 3.936194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.63, "volume": 10569452, "typical_volume": 22109347.7, "trend": 3.910385, "fair_value": 4.43403, "relative_strength": -15.558013, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.715751, "energy": 62.66988, "activity_lines": [ 3.654667, 3.734364, 3.899012, 3.917921 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.58, "volume": 10678308, "typical_volume": 21949862.35, "trend": 3.906844, "fair_value": 4.428876, "relative_strength": -15.939933, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.474058, "energy": 72.396351, "activity_lines": [ 3.622, 3.687818, 3.861714, 3.896606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.51, "volume": 10548050, "typical_volume": 22024230.4, "trend": 3.898363, "fair_value": 4.422701, "relative_strength": -16.650401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.357563, "energy": 72.726876, "activity_lines": [ 3.574667, 3.638727, 3.819048, 3.871003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.58, "volume": 14380780, "typical_volume": 19449070.75, "trend": 3.891563, "fair_value": 4.414463, "relative_strength": -16.224281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.578047, "energy": 63.430269, "activity_lines": [ 3.57, 3.614364, 3.785571, 3.850464 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.62, "volume": 9339179, "typical_volume": 18858780.75, "trend": 3.884467, "fair_value": 4.406366, "relative_strength": -17.26726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.081771, "energy": 51.631563, "activity_lines": [ 3.582667, 3.607273, 3.757476, 3.832943 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }