{ "ticker": { "uuid": "384098b9-f6fa-44ec-a807-86577c3ebfcf", "symbol": "3523", "name": "EFUN Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.713, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.459, "architecture_energy": 4.082, "architecture_maturity": 20.042, "architecture_confidence": 40.948, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.92, "rotation_up": 24.97, "upward_expansion": 24.28, "deceleration": 63.1, "rotation_down": 37.47, "downward_expansion": 28.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.713333, 16.034545, 15.630571, 15.385634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.65, "trend_reference": 15.563, "distance_from_trend": -0.058665, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.639359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.214029, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.828131, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.183844, "excess_performance": -0.625216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058665, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032934, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.214029, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.216155, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.378281, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213393, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183844, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.094075, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61414, "relative_activity": 0.18817, "balance": 2.094075, "dry_up": 0.735521, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.253977, "annualized_volatility": 1.040129, "from_high_reference": -0.369892, "from_low_reference": 0.532427 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.563, "fair_value_reference": 18.639359, "structural_low": 9.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.030151, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.263158, "median_excess_return": -0.08243, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.309645, "worst_return": -0.135081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.065766, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.113105, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.734783, "worst_return": -0.263852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.046875, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.050795, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.688073, "worst_return": -0.292473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.072337, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.046205, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.508197, "worst_return": -0.358173, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002785, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025381, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.167521, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189084, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067532, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075431, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086538, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047739, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.191892, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.264917, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020067, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 18.200001, "volume": 104000, "typical_volume": 95850.0, "trend": 17.153333, "fair_value": 16.490491, "relative_strength": -4.748706, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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315544.6, "trend": 15.823, "fair_value": 18.606667, "relative_strength": -35.570668, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.403859, "energy": 6.63025, "activity_lines": [ 15.943333, 16.160545, 15.105381, 15.275871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.549999, "volume": 480400, "typical_volume": 337384.4, "trend": 15.886333, "fair_value": 18.633269, "relative_strength": -20.874131, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.949839, "energy": 12.8417, "activity_lines": [ 16.686666, 16.716182, 15.469476, 15.451806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.4, "volume": 353074, "typical_volume": 339847.55, "trend": 15.801333, "fair_value": 18.645449, "relative_strength": -28.257298, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.236209, "energy": 6.922561, "activity_lines": [ 16.58, 16.735454, 15.616667, 15.484946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.3, "volume": 65337, "typical_volume": 327030.45, "trend": 15.688, "fair_value": 18.644808, "relative_strength": -33.764945, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.967491, "energy": 4.34274, "activity_lines": [ 16.203333, 16.438182, 15.65219, 15.452602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.65, "volume": 61414, "typical_volume": 326375.8, "trend": 15.563, "fair_value": 18.639359, "relative_strength": -37.828131, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.45917, "energy": 4.081797, "activity_lines": [ 15.713333, 16.034545, 15.630571, 15.385634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }