{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38462544-6c70-4ec0-a937-4e350033bc97", "symbol": "HOG", "name": "Harley-Davidson, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 68.381, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.962, "architecture_energy": 45.652, "architecture_maturity": 76.384, "architecture_confidence": 56.106, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.24, "rotation_up": 48.31, "upward_expansion": 80.07, "deceleration": 68.56, "rotation_down": 27.42, "downward_expansion": 6.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.391333, 22.371318, 21.757455, 20.747446 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.559999, "trend_reference": 19.454494, "distance_from_trend": 0.159629, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.185496, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104246, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.467907, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.323291, "excess_performance": 0.149044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.159629, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054624, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104246, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099848, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104679, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036219, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.323291, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.909949, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2315, "relative_activity": 4.682443, "balance": 0.909949, "dry_up": 4.271339, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058995, "annualized_volatility": 0.321185, "from_high_reference": -0.124732, "from_low_reference": 0.51562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.454494, "fair_value_reference": 25.185496, "structural_low": 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"relative_strength": -10.075745, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.87261, "energy": 78.340244, "activity_lines": [ 22.292, 21.877797, 20.845323, 19.858801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.190001, "volume": 1468, "typical_volume": 145.45, "trend": 18.986487, "fair_value": 25.356777, "relative_strength": -5.22302, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.878384, "energy": 70.339461, "activity_lines": [ 22.593334, 22.177633, 21.188401, 20.141036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.049999, "volume": 3728, "typical_volume": 331.85, "trend": 19.179295, "fair_value": 25.294627, "relative_strength": -6.753426, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.976966, "energy": 60.176365, "activity_lines": [ 22.782667, 22.404122, 21.481395, 20.403198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.26, "volume": 936, "typical_volume": 378.65, "trend": 19.304861, "fair_value": 25.228613, "relative_strength": -13.481052, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.091001, "energy": 47.585261, "activity_lines": [ 22.326, 22.27765, 21.570913, 20.537437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.559999, "volume": 2315, "typical_volume": 494.4, "trend": 19.454494, "fair_value": 25.185496, "relative_strength": -10.467907, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.962096, "energy": 45.65208, "activity_lines": [ 22.391333, 22.371318, 21.757455, 20.747446 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }