{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3847758c-efd7-45ae-8f42-90c6f2885ebb", "symbol": "ACVA", "name": "ACV Auctions Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.616, "architecture_energy": 64.3, "architecture_maturity": 27.478, "architecture_confidence": 74.516, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.89, "rotation_up": 64.81, "upward_expansion": 87.34, "deceleration": 47.22, "rotation_down": 14.35, "downward_expansion": 14.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.468, 7.224727, 6.685286, 6.331634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.46, "trend_reference": 6.250667, "distance_from_trend": 0.193473, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.849231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.461342, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.103543, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.012212, "excess_performance": -0.113413, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.193473, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032654, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.461342, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102748, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111035, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.311131, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012212, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.487883, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13305018, "relative_activity": 0.878762, "balance": 1.487883, "dry_up": 0.952589, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115228, "annualized_volatility": 0.741225, "from_high_reference": -0.463309, "from_low_reference": 0.835178 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.250667, "fair_value_reference": 13.849231, "structural_low": 4.065, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.026027, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.023006, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.026027, "worst_return": 0.026027, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104106, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022409, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101441, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03759, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.249182, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014174, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08034, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.353072, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081176, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006051, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.224382, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021918, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.56, "volume": 5296838, "typical_volume": 7009900.75, "trend": 14.418, "fair_value": 15.45619, "relative_strength": 22.529764, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.798684, "energy": 14.723049, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.73, "volume": 16150613, "typical_volume": 15065143.75, "trend": 6.321333, "fair_value": 13.961218, "relative_strength": -7.524365, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.915832, "energy": 61.217902, "activity_lines": [ 7.332667, 6.961818, 6.387429, 6.181054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.49, "volume": 13276239, "typical_volume": 15181928.4, "trend": 6.294667, "fair_value": 13.903205, "relative_strength": -9.530167, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.773652, "energy": 49.498541, "activity_lines": [ 7.424, 7.11, 6.544095, 6.256452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.46, "volume": 13305018, "typical_volume": 15140641.6, "trend": 6.250667, "fair_value": 13.849231, "relative_strength": -11.103543, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.616223, "energy": 64.300148, "activity_lines": [ 7.468, 7.224727, 6.685286, 6.331634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }