{ "ticker": { "uuid": "384b546e-ee95-4e0d-ba04-aabd02d68d97", "symbol": "CRN", "name": "Coronado Global Resources Inc.", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.826, "architecture_energy": 55.107, "architecture_maturity": 64.746, "architecture_confidence": 91.724, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.07, "rotation_up": 24.12, "upward_expansion": 9.27, "deceleration": 57.04, "rotation_down": 55.76, "downward_expansion": 82.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.172, 0.181182, 0.211619, 0.238312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.18, "trend_reference": 0.280167, "distance_from_trend": -0.357525, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.781018, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.769532, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.137019, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.526316, "excess_performance": -0.590021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.357525, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119895, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.769532, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057013, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.43137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.313696, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.526316, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.227531, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10041179, "relative_activity": 0.706966, "balance": 1.227531, "dry_up": 1.059093, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.21688, "annualized_volatility": 0.792716, "from_high_reference": -0.632653, "from_low_reference": 0.16129 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.280167, "fair_value_reference": 0.781018, "structural_low": 0.155, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.051323, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.059459, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.851852, "worst_return": -0.470111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.152257, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.163247, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.592593, "worst_return": -0.6625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.080997, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.158975, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.01244, "worst_return": -0.572185, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 0.808724, "relative_strength": -42.403016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.696439, "energy": 85.324518, "activity_lines": [ 0.175667, 0.204636, 0.234857, 0.261699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.165, "volume": 7818289, "typical_volume": 14793879.95, "trend": 0.292833, "fair_value": 0.799341, "relative_strength": -45.237212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.238121, "energy": 84.636328, "activity_lines": [ 0.168667, 0.194545, 0.225619, 0.253108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.17, "volume": 26407812, "typical_volume": 14837044.45, "trend": 0.2865, "fair_value": 0.790022, "relative_strength": -44.770404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.83926, "energy": 71.659262, "activity_lines": [ 0.168, 0.186545, 0.217762, 0.245183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.18, "volume": 10041179, "typical_volume": 14203201.1, "trend": 0.280167, "fair_value": 0.781018, "relative_strength": -43.137019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.825787, "energy": 55.106574, "activity_lines": [ 0.172, 0.181182, 0.211619, 0.238312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }