{ "ticker": { "uuid": "384d56e4-0e72-4f55-8f13-f5fcf4c998a5", "symbol": "GNC", "name": "GrainCorp Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.635, "architecture_energy": 29.8, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.675, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.75, "rotation_up": 41.29, "upward_expansion": 22.06, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 20.59, "downward_expansion": 56.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.400667, 5.195492, 5.259862, 5.483376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.48, "trend_reference": 5.804363, "distance_from_trend": -0.055883, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.998416, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.216966, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.115533, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.023173, "excess_performance": -0.086879, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055883, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133651, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.216966, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072984, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.231155, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061204, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.023173, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.449186, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6524061, "relative_activity": 1.174337, "balance": 1.449186, "dry_up": 1.573476, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060601, "annualized_volatility": 0.339933, "from_high_reference": -0.382299, "from_low_reference": 0.168443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.804363, "fair_value_reference": 6.998416, "structural_low": 4.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.007131, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.000581, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.111429, "worst_return": -0.25625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.035512, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.057364, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.170938, "worst_return": -0.123611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020607, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.020024, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.114439, "worst_return": -0.223611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4.86, "volume": 6818456, "typical_volume": 5373578.05, "trend": 6.03603, "fair_value": 7.038299, "relative_strength": -29.940335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.200538, "energy": 63.76563, "activity_lines": [ 4.838707, 4.893557, 5.349498, 5.627728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.02, "volume": 6460677, "typical_volume": 5434337.9, "trend": 5.968697, "fair_value": 7.025961, "relative_strength": -27.113711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.674582, "energy": 59.925932, "activity_lines": [ 4.888877, 4.893905, 5.285875, 5.562178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.45, "volume": 11565191, "typical_volume": 5541805.8, "trend": 5.913363, "fair_value": 7.016654, "relative_strength": -20.200172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.060607, "energy": 40.932813, "activity_lines": [ 5.0832, 4.99207, 5.268633, 5.528714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.59, "volume": 10416024, "typical_volume": 5755271.6, "trend": 5.859363, "fair_value": 7.007751, "relative_strength": -19.585068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.615679, "energy": 26.550368, "activity_lines": [ 5.285333, 5.111327, 5.268295, 5.507851 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.48, "volume": 6524061, "typical_volume": 5555526.65, "trend": 5.804363, "fair_value": 6.998416, "relative_strength": -23.115533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.635143, "energy": 29.799729, "activity_lines": [ 5.400667, 5.195492, 5.259862, 5.483376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }