{ "ticker": { "uuid": "385d2153-d5f7-4ae1-8e87-890e8cdd24a8", "symbol": "ULTA", "name": "Ulta Beauty, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.755, "architecture_energy": 24.494, "architecture_maturity": 82.385, "architecture_confidence": 59.384, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.25, "rotation_up": 36.41, "upward_expansion": 24.83, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 17.98, "downward_expansion": 58.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 8740.0, 8491.580362, 8587.88597, 8987.490113 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9280.0, "trend_reference": 9689.96805, "distance_from_trend": -0.042309, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8445.224559, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098846, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.44594, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.208312, "excess_performance": -0.153645, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042309, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056778, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098846, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021051, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074459, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102812, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.208312, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 47.166667, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6, "relative_activity": 0.05584, "balance": 47.166667, "dry_up": 0.172173, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038899, "annualized_volatility": 0.40558, "from_high_reference": -0.220167, "from_low_reference": 0.166855 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9689.96805, "fair_value_reference": 8445.224559, "structural_low": 7953.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.030504, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.027755, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.178974, "worst_return": -0.103573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.116024, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.063313, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.189189, "worst_return": -0.028552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.162471, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.186427, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.389189, "worst_return": 0.098425, "sufficient": false }, { 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8422.564303, "relative_strength": -18.074053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.313498, "energy": 62.406112, "activity_lines": [ 8202.066667, 8211.086186, 8547.110928, 9080.070936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8855.0, "volume": 26, "typical_volume": 108.4, "trend": 9748.601383, "fair_value": 8432.532252, "relative_strength": -12.025479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.204221, "energy": 41.402451, "activity_lines": [ 8409.033333, 8312.340545, 8541.610354, 9017.72246 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9280.0, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 107.45, "trend": 9689.96805, "fair_value": 8445.224559, "relative_strength": -7.44594, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.755458, "energy": 24.494333, "activity_lines": [ 8740.0, 8491.580362, 8587.88597, 8987.490113 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }