{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3861bff5-45ef-44d8-94f9-7a0dbef30c71", "symbol": "NEPH", "name": "Nephros Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.104, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.41, "architecture_energy": 42.765, "architecture_maturity": 32.687, "architecture_confidence": 44.616, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.25, "rotation_up": 55.73, "upward_expansion": 52.39, "deceleration": 29.94, "rotation_down": 23.33, "downward_expansion": 17.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.781333, 3.653818, 3.507095, 3.468065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.21, "trend_reference": 3.557, "distance_from_trend": 0.183582, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.834698, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.485167, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.72357, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.087855, "excess_performance": -0.099598, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.183582, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111342, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.485167, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165366, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097236, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179502, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087855, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.914574, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 151681, "relative_activity": 1.541351, "balance": 0.914574, "dry_up": 0.706227, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120227, "annualized_volatility": 0.616686, "from_high_reference": -0.344237, "from_low_reference": 0.580983 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.557, "fair_value_reference": 2.834698, "structural_low": 2.6629, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.086826, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.069472, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.368932, "worst_return": -0.180233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.15, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.067818, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.223602, "worst_return": -0.395789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.186441, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.166645, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.557143, "worst_return": -0.417526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.710692, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 1.441092, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.908814, "worst_return": -0.853093, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-04-21", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.007092, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.507391, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.188889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082569, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.250971, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.283019, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.918421, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170868, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.321716, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136842, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.260479, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.54, "volume": 45242, "typical_volume": 269856.95, "trend": 1.36815, "fair_value": 4.583043, "relative_strength": 6.084523, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"relative_strength": -18.072256, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.16668, "energy": 20.436461, "activity_lines": [ 3.641333, 3.546909, 3.409524, 3.442215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.39, "volume": 66136, "typical_volume": 119407.4, "trend": 3.577, "fair_value": 2.817327, "relative_strength": -23.829669, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.268634, "energy": 12.961421, "activity_lines": [ 3.567333, 3.525091, 3.419, 3.427226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.21, "volume": 151681, "typical_volume": 98407.85, "trend": 3.557, "fair_value": 2.834698, "relative_strength": -9.72357, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.409729, "energy": 42.765228, "activity_lines": [ 3.781333, 3.653818, 3.507095, 3.468065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }