{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38659fb0-82bf-466a-90ee-d52bbf146555", "symbol": "JPNH", "name": "Amundi Japan TOPIX II UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.317, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.362, "architecture_energy": 45.384, "architecture_maturity": 56.143, "architecture_confidence": 66.121, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.34, "rotation_up": 46.81, "upward_expansion": 75.34, "deceleration": 88.59, "rotation_down": 28.55, "downward_expansion": 11.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 332.509992, 332.277268, 327.431854, 321.686859 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 339.149994, "trend_reference": 314.650334, "distance_from_trend": 0.077863, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 234.736214, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.444813, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.543541, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105984, "excess_performance": -0.064908, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077863, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061877, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.444813, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012222, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005435, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047746, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105984, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.864509, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 329, "relative_activity": 0.184371, "balance": 0.864509, "dry_up": 2.41461, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026755, "annualized_volatility": 0.189208, "from_high_reference": -0.002647, "from_low_reference": 0.381623 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 314.650334, "fair_value_reference": 234.736214, "structural_low": 283.720001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.02352, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.03147, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.071273, "worst_return": -0.035395, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.050441, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.047359, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.139138, "worst_return": -0.09365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05756, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.000344, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.201658, "worst_return": -0.03956, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.067476, "energy": 85.73512, "activity_lines": [ 334.310004, 330.514365, 321.889334, 316.430173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 325.399994, "volume": 13953, "typical_volume": 1911.0, "trend": 309.729668, "fair_value": 231.622958, "relative_strength": -0.763921, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.013189, "energy": 54.655384, "activity_lines": [ 331.856667, 330.195091, 322.878381, 317.540087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 333.799988, "volume": 1487, "typical_volume": 1917.95, "trend": 311.610334, "fair_value": 232.658241, "relative_strength": 1.759934, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.933307, "energy": 53.786432, "activity_lines": [ 332.143329, 331.248726, 324.642665, 319.093011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 325.799988, "volume": 1466, "typical_volume": 1884.15, "trend": 313.135001, "fair_value": 233.664721, "relative_strength": -1.506813, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.220453, "energy": 37.151365, "activity_lines": [ 329.949992, 330.593269, 325.476045, 320.008472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 339.149994, "volume": 329, "typical_volume": 1784.45, "trend": 314.650334, "fair_value": 234.736214, "relative_strength": -0.543541, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.361882, "energy": 45.384, "activity_lines": [ 332.509992, 332.277268, 327.431854, 321.686859 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }