{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3867e357-7903-4a7c-bcee-dab97461cac0", "symbol": "SWZ", "name": "Swiss Helvetia Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.124, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.069, "architecture_energy": 18.454, "architecture_maturity": 32.734, "architecture_confidence": 56.769, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.07, "rotation_up": 24.14, "upward_expansion": 14.94, "deceleration": 59.41, "rotation_down": 34.5, "downward_expansion": 60.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.927333, 5.922545, 5.944103, 5.962612 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.97, "trend_reference": 5.996777, "distance_from_trend": -0.004465, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.621031, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.062083, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.944452, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.018092, "excess_performance": -0.143717, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004465, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011104, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.062083, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038383, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119445, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004407, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018092, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.404799, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105905, "relative_activity": 0.356745, "balance": 1.404799, "dry_up": 0.403299, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017392, "annualized_volatility": 0.09875, "from_high_reference": -0.053883, "from_low_reference": 0.02226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.996777, "fair_value_reference": 5.621031, "structural_low": 5.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.019065, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": 0.006531, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.132979, "worst_return": -0.089172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.027205, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.003355, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.237862, "worst_return": -0.106304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.06395, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.007859, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.250447, "worst_return": -0.109917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 305604.7, "trend": 6.016777, "fair_value": 5.609644, "relative_strength": -10.002545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.300131, "energy": 31.354933, "activity_lines": [ 5.914667, 5.917915, 5.949087, 5.972454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.9, "volume": 134856, "typical_volume": 304271.8, "trend": 6.005777, "fair_value": 5.615113, "relative_strength": -10.312886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.99732, "energy": 28.709526, "activity_lines": [ 5.909333, 5.913273, 5.943071, 5.96492 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.97, "volume": 105905, "typical_volume": 296865.0, "trend": 5.996777, "fair_value": 5.621031, "relative_strength": -11.944452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.068688, "energy": 18.453656, "activity_lines": [ 5.927333, 5.922545, 5.944103, 5.962612 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }