{ "ticker": { "uuid": "386a4ba6-35f5-45c1-8aab-f8fa552d20f4", "symbol": "SIRIPRT", "name": "Siripinyo Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.77, "architecture_energy": 82.266, "architecture_maturity": 37.734, "architecture_confidence": 81.935, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.94, "rotation_up": 8.56, "upward_expansion": 18.54, "deceleration": 37.13, "rotation_down": 82.97, "downward_expansion": 96.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.023333, 6.288182, 6.533958, 6.673644 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 5.9, "trend_reference": 6.914156, "distance_from_trend": -0.146678, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.40665, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.203419, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.627034, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.246063, "excess_performance": -0.438388, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146678, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057954, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.203419, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056116, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.30627, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034164, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.246063, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.247069, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49200, "relative_activity": 1.409944, "balance": 0.247069, "dry_up": 3.508382, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067673, "annualized_volatility": 0.3047, "from_high_reference": -0.279266, "from_low_reference": 0.063063 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.914156, "fair_value_reference": 7.40665, "structural_low": 5.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.028986, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.047285, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.049252, "worst_return": -0.119403, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.102813, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 6.817642, "volume": 16600, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 7.859227, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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46.411133, "activity_lines": [ 6.666667, 6.763929, 6.791928, 6.902605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.85, "volume": 399800, "typical_volume": 33135.0, "trend": 7.053977, "fair_value": 7.440687, "relative_strength": -33.621698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.002667, "energy": 68.207403, "activity_lines": [ 6.39, 6.585818, 6.697989, 6.820891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.85, "volume": 4200, "typical_volume": 32935.0, "trend": 6.978342, "fair_value": 7.423207, "relative_strength": -32.225178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.915452, "energy": 80.019281, "activity_lines": [ 6.17, 6.420909, 6.61104, 6.743215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.9, "volume": 49200, "typical_volume": 34895.0, "trend": 6.914156, "fair_value": 7.40665, "relative_strength": -30.627034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.770191, "energy": 82.26629, "activity_lines": [ 6.023333, 6.288182, 6.533958, 6.673644 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }