{ "ticker": { "uuid": "386b7f6e-2b9f-4cf8-801a-0f8173223eac", "symbol": "BLU", "name": "Blue Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.087, "architecture_energy": 53.015, "architecture_maturity": 44.983, "architecture_confidence": 93.799, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 21.33, "upward_expansion": 7.36, "deceleration": 52.86, "rotation_down": 58.98, "downward_expansion": 80.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.003533, 0.003727, 0.004343, 0.004778 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.003, "trend_reference": 0.0054, "distance_from_trend": -0.444444, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.009792, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.693617, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.236433, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.571429, "excess_performance": -0.635134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.444444, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089888, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.693617, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20861, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.502364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.450688, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.571429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.135354, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1411385, "relative_activity": 0.122233, "balance": 0.135354, "dry_up": 0.286599, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.307692, "annualized_volatility": 1.058997, "from_high_reference": -0.7, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0054, "fair_value_reference": 0.009792, "structural_low": 0.003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.031498, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.047757, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.615385, "worst_return": -0.315789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.03125, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059095, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.732143, "worst_return": -0.40625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.207566, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.267857, "worst_return": -0.590909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 0.003533, 0.003727, 0.004343, 0.004778 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }