{ "ticker": { "uuid": "386ee075-ec34-426b-9b39-debce7a8a6c3", "symbol": "XLFQ", "name": "Invesco Financials S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.024, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.012, "architecture_energy": 81.953, "architecture_maturity": 15.123, "architecture_confidence": 75.069, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.86, "rotation_up": 79.85, "upward_expansion": 96.31, "deceleration": 42.09, "rotation_down": 12.58, "downward_expansion": 18.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 33328.0, 32922.272727, 31952.654762, 31351.11828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 33565.0, "trend_reference": 30820.75, "distance_from_trend": 0.089039, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27884.850185, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.2037, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.912632, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079955, "excess_performance": 0.02872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089039, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009019, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.2037, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103662, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009126, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083444, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079955, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.24091, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5111, "relative_activity": 2.272364, "balance": 3.24091, "dry_up": 1.340477, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023697, "annualized_volatility": 0.132014, "from_high_reference": -0.19029, "from_low_reference": 0.183533 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30820.75, "fair_value_reference": 27884.850185, "structural_low": 28360.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.007122, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.001882, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.122064, "worst_return": -0.076564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.022141, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.024077, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.157168, "worst_return": -0.147868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.042378, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.004665, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.199653, "worst_return": -0.148225, "sufficient": true }, { 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-0.515068, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.63277, "energy": 89.96742, "activity_lines": [ 32366.166667, 31706.681818, 30926.571429, 30677.919355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33152.5, "volume": 3825, "typical_volume": 2028.2, "trend": 30698.916667, "fair_value": 27643.657878, "relative_strength": 0.183507, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.808535, "energy": 92.637719, "activity_lines": [ 32710.5, 32068.454545, 31190.619048, 30838.596774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33282.5, "volume": 1066, "typical_volume": 2028.65, "trend": 30737.666667, "fair_value": 27723.686724, "relative_strength": -0.522336, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.582797, "energy": 91.564581, "activity_lines": [ 32973.0, 32389.090909, 31451.619048, 31005.27957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33322.5, "volume": 2058, "typical_volume": 2092.55, "trend": 30789.333333, "fair_value": 27803.157878, "relative_strength": -1.457474, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.439636, "energy": 85.99051, "activity_lines": [ 33150.166667, 32660.363636, 31700.869048, 31172.043011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33565.0, "volume": 5111, "typical_volume": 2249.2, "trend": 30820.75, "fair_value": 27884.850185, "relative_strength": -0.912632, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.011609, "energy": 81.95296, "activity_lines": [ 33328.0, 32922.272727, 31952.654762, 31351.11828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }