{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38713b2a-e41f-4eca-81cb-8894d522c951", "symbol": "EMXU", "name": "Amundi MSCI Emerging Ex China ESG Selection - UCITS ETF DR (C)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.345, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.654, "architecture_energy": 21.427, "architecture_maturity": 60.823, "architecture_confidence": 95.948, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.02, "rotation_up": 22.66, "upward_expansion": 45.61, "deceleration": 82.02, "rotation_down": 44.04, "downward_expansion": 34.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.695999, 64.72509, 65.008523, 64.012236 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 65.489998, "trend_reference": 62.862667, "distance_from_trend": 0.041795, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.549698, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.246249, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.31016, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.067134, "excess_performance": -0.01575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041795, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054265, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.246249, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061029, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160267, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.067134, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.966193, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44937, "relative_activity": 1.464693, "balance": 0.966193, "dry_up": 1.876906, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044657, "annualized_volatility": 0.271158, "from_high_reference": -0.062554, "from_low_reference": 0.277604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.862667, "fair_value_reference": 52.549698, "structural_low": 55.169998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028582, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.034991, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.124734, "worst_return": 0.020321, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.195751, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.0908, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.226789, "worst_return": 0.164712, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.252473, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.197253, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.252473, "worst_return": 0.252473, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"up", "direction": -1.908876, "energy": 18.7383, "activity_lines": [ 63.284667, 64.757818, 64.832047, 63.827097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.489998, "volume": 44937, "typical_volume": 30680.15, "trend": 62.862667, "fair_value": 52.549698, "relative_strength": -0.31016, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.653863, "energy": 21.427442, "activity_lines": [ 63.695999, 64.72509, 65.008523, 64.012236 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }