{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38753938-fa35-443c-9f13-5b8ab3e359fe", "symbol": "EBAY", "name": "eBay Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.226, "architecture_energy": 31.308, "architecture_maturity": 46.479, "architecture_confidence": 76.577, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.72, "rotation_up": 38.0, "upward_expansion": 70.85, "deceleration": 90.1, "rotation_down": 27.2, "downward_expansion": 8.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 112.362, 112.101818, 110.476023, 106.553431 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 111.98, "trend_reference": 101.269493, "distance_from_trend": 0.105762, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.205813, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.618072, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.858699, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.301828, "excess_performance": 0.114374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.105762, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098601, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.618072, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074941, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028587, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001751, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.301828, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.522521, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31124366, "relative_activity": 1.335731, "balance": 0.522521, "dry_up": 0.945323, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065069, "annualized_volatility": 0.30687, "from_high_reference": -0.058774, "from_low_reference": 0.443973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 101.269493, "fair_value_reference": 69.205813, "structural_low": 77.549946, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.018925, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.012042, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.288713, "worst_return": -0.120534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.083012, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.062961, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.189746, "worst_return": -0.247999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053188, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015536, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.415905, "worst_return": -0.063601, "sufficient": true }, { 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67.095952, "energy": 43.55146, "activity_lines": [ 110.464667, 110.463834, 106.166475, 101.97454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 117.2, "volume": 10979156, "typical_volume": 24189155.45, "trend": 97.878161, "fair_value": 67.438437, "relative_strength": 7.787571, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.085298, "energy": 49.647518, "activity_lines": [ 112.937333, 111.762653, 107.664553, 103.290713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 112.06, "volume": 19896154, "typical_volume": 23651827.5, "trend": 98.808855, "fair_value": 67.862607, "relative_strength": 7.214261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.904854, "energy": 45.477681, "activity_lines": [ 113.173333, 111.882847, 108.531813, 104.20567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 109.39, "volume": 19638175, "typical_volume": 23472516.6, "trend": 99.63233, "fair_value": 68.289926, "relative_strength": 6.121172, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.361212, "energy": 42.534516, "activity_lines": [ 112.289333, 111.432592, 109.041174, 104.888325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 114.01, "volume": 17450567, "typical_volume": 23240575.3, "trend": 100.548517, "fair_value": 68.758788, "relative_strength": 9.976223, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.189272, "energy": 41.276277, "activity_lines": [ 112.868667, 111.938909, 109.909857, 105.815916 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 111.98, "volume": 31124366, "typical_volume": 23301369.35, "trend": 101.269493, "fair_value": 69.205813, "relative_strength": 2.858699, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.22644, "energy": 31.308244, "activity_lines": [ 112.362, 112.101818, 110.476023, 106.553431 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }