{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38763496-8282-4ff1-a6d1-eff62170a567", "symbol": "ALUP4", "name": "Alupar Investimento S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.257, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.657, "architecture_energy": 16.59, "architecture_maturity": 18.743, "architecture_confidence": 58.96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.06, "rotation_up": 24.16, "upward_expansion": 16.17, "deceleration": 54.67, "rotation_down": 34.22, "downward_expansion": 56.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.486, 10.494727, 10.488224, 10.570614 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.28, "trend_reference": 10.665029, "distance_from_trend": -0.036102, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.231377, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113593, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.304798, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.035436, "excess_performance": 0.021612, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036102, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005639, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113593, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079099, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043048, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047836, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035436, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.339832, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56800, "relative_activity": 1.110785, "balance": 0.339832, "dry_up": 0.861445, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044565, "annualized_volatility": 0.243786, "from_high_reference": -0.105405, "from_low_reference": 0.153853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.665029, "fair_value_reference": 9.231377, "structural_low": 9.8, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.011224, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.010162, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.115479, "worst_return": -0.056738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.077699, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.044344, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.174215, "worst_return": -0.062648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070869, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.016077, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.190898, "worst_return": 0.058492, 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0.043621, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034574, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03018, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.035711, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": 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"typical_volume": 52905.0, "trend": 10.569589, "fair_value": 9.149, "relative_strength": -3.96066, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.949118, "energy": 11.682075, "activity_lines": [ 10.381333, 10.340886, 10.513144, 10.586506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.84, "volume": 60700, "typical_volume": 54070.0, "trend": 10.59715, "fair_value": 9.167421, "relative_strength": -3.103588, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.040572, "energy": 10.977396, "activity_lines": [ 10.563333, 10.423388, 10.529968, 10.603952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.64, "volume": 43800, "typical_volume": 54250.0, "trend": 10.623607, "fair_value": 9.18472, "relative_strength": -2.383084, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.631606, "energy": 13.829672, "activity_lines": [ 10.628667, 10.469273, 10.529854, 10.606716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.55, "volume": 34300, "typical_volume": 51935.0, "trend": 10.639864, "fair_value": 9.200537, "relative_strength": -3.153745, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.376512, "energy": 18.55398, "activity_lines": [ 10.632667, 10.501455, 10.524324, 10.601967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.53, "volume": 41300, "typical_volume": 51580.0, "trend": 10.656117, "fair_value": 9.216386, "relative_strength": -5.200628, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.959125, "energy": 12.433633, "activity_lines": [ 10.6, 10.521273, 10.517261, 10.594879 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.28, "volume": 56800, "typical_volume": 51135.0, "trend": 10.665029, "fair_value": 9.231377, "relative_strength": -4.304798, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.657244, "energy": 16.590238, "activity_lines": [ 10.486, 10.494727, 10.488224, 10.570614 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }