{ "ticker": { "uuid": "387a34f7-7441-4cea-9127-2501ada768ee", "symbol": "FGEA", "name": "Fidelity Global Quality Income UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.468, "architecture_energy": 71.273, "architecture_maturity": 27.268, "architecture_confidence": 78.254, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.59, "rotation_up": 65.42, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 65.37, "rotation_down": 22.85, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.7208, 5.675545, 5.570852, 5.469153 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.825, "trend_reference": 5.350533, "distance_from_trend": 0.088677, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.913432, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.185526, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.646531, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.125604, "excess_performance": -0.045288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088677, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043793, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.185526, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067026, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026465, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006452, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125604, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.810436, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8507, "relative_activity": 1.337179, "balance": 5.810436, "dry_up": 1.929023, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01825, "annualized_volatility": 0.093077, "from_high_reference": -0.005973, "from_low_reference": 0.251477 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.350533, "fair_value_reference": 4.913432, "structural_low": 4.9705, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028244, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 4.753, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 4.751, "volume": 856, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 4.751, "volume": 0, 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null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.659, "volume": 67, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.688, "volume": 13656, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.675, "volume": 3357, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.663, "volume": 3405, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.665, "volume": 33820, "typical_volume": 6260.25, "trend": 5.327567, "fair_value": 4.902038, "relative_strength": -2.548743, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.361375, "energy": 64.419208, "activity_lines": [ 5.669133, 5.634691, 5.531481, 5.43706 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.825, "volume": 8507, "typical_volume": 6361.9, "trend": 5.350533, "fair_value": 4.913432, "relative_strength": -2.646531, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.468279, "energy": 71.272533, "activity_lines": [ 5.7208, 5.675545, 5.570852, 5.469153 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }