{ "ticker": { "uuid": "387e8802-90e8-4183-b947-726de1fc3e65", "symbol": "002211", "name": "Shanghai Hongda New Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.177, "architecture_energy": 11.365, "architecture_maturity": 19.87, "architecture_confidence": 52.115, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.35, "rotation_up": 22.29, "upward_expansion": 17.92, "deceleration": 63.62, "rotation_down": 45.75, "downward_expansion": 35.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.637333, 3.709273, 3.736524, 3.71643 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.83, "trend_reference": 3.671, "distance_from_trend": 0.043312, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.468397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.104256, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.10649, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.106936, "excess_performance": 0.099537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043312, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025514, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.104256, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000721, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041065, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117205, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.106936, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.512598, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61563105, "relative_activity": 1.584156, "balance": 1.512598, "dry_up": 1.470997, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112673, "annualized_volatility": 0.396881, "from_high_reference": -0.143177, "from_low_reference": 0.367857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.671, "fair_value_reference": 3.468397, "structural_low": 2.94, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.001786, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022002, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.10473, "worst_return": -0.306792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.077181, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.028118, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.08, "worst_return": -0.40281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.08604, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.048348, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.030986, "worst_return": -0.416862, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.065574, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.182869, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281879, "worst_return": -0.395062, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.343537, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.250585, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.102339, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.169014, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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"New", "return": -0.018462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021021, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087324, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.114058, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113372, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 4.35, "volume": 263858349, "typical_volume": 67390107.95, "trend": 3.052667, "fair_value": 4.174744, "relative_strength": 51.709612, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": 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"trend": 3.628, "fair_value": 3.4725, "relative_strength": -5.1766, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.471905, "energy": 5.653514, "activity_lines": [ 3.726667, 3.779818, 3.755619, 3.715376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.44, "volume": 22251801, "typical_volume": 33061477.65, "trend": 3.636, "fair_value": 3.470128, "relative_strength": -2.68853, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.180458, "energy": 14.523508, "activity_lines": [ 3.608, 3.712727, 3.728762, 3.703247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.66, "volume": 110480708, "typical_volume": 37311753.05, "trend": 3.649667, "fair_value": 3.469487, "relative_strength": 4.921663, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.734493, "energy": 17.420451, "activity_lines": [ 3.588, 3.694, 3.724429, 3.704796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.83, "volume": 61563105, "typical_volume": 38861773.3, "trend": 3.671, "fair_value": 3.468397, "relative_strength": 4.10649, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.176833, "energy": 11.364879, "activity_lines": [ 3.637333, 3.709273, 3.736524, 3.71643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }