{ "ticker": { "uuid": "387f2998-cb29-449c-962b-26c483643525", "symbol": "ADANIPOWER", "name": "Adani Power Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 17.176, "architecture_energy": 19.924, "architecture_maturity": 70.306, "architecture_confidence": 89.029, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.13, "rotation_up": 18.24, "upward_expansion": 47.75, "deceleration": 87.78, "rotation_down": 30.68, "downward_expansion": 25.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 211.904666, 216.599454, 218.633286, 206.877764 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 209.0, "trend_reference": 188.706001, "distance_from_trend": 0.107543, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 129.683975, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.61161, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 23.525703, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.368338, "excess_performance": 0.412047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107543, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150672, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.61161, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.340307, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.235257, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.398085, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.368338, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.33854, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70170567, "relative_activity": 0.445996, "balance": 0.33854, "dry_up": 0.774846, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064597, "annualized_volatility": 0.344699, "from_high_reference": -0.177813, "from_low_reference": 0.829482 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 188.706001, "fair_value_reference": 129.683975, "structural_low": 130.699997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.03796, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.024553, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.414178, "worst_return": -0.15518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.050037, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.010946, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.458121, "worst_return": -0.158641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.122005, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011124, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.237081, "worst_return": -0.193134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034654, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048108, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.140132, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.306008, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-20", 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"close": 213.660004, "volume": 154646601, "typical_volume": 170000578.25, "trend": 184.357334, "fair_value": 127.71609, "relative_strength": 33.462139, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.094563, "energy": 25.626372, "activity_lines": [ 216.953333, 221.769818, 218.106905, 203.684818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 211.309998, "volume": 77270654, "typical_volume": 164953220.95, "trend": 186.462001, "fair_value": 128.71359, "relative_strength": 27.188242, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.192494, "energy": 23.805584, "activity_lines": [ 214.215332, 219.321817, 218.634238, 205.423699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 209.0, "volume": 70170567, "typical_volume": 157334407.3, "trend": 188.706001, "fair_value": 129.683975, "relative_strength": 23.525703, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.175523, "energy": 19.924467, "activity_lines": [ 211.904666, 216.599454, 218.633286, 206.877764 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }