{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3883ee23-6459-472b-8ce4-fc56ca09bf7d", "symbol": "002997", "name": "Rayhoo Motor Dies Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.153, "architecture_energy": 72.29, "architecture_maturity": 61.047, "architecture_confidence": 85.68, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 10.4, "upward_expansion": 16.24, "deceleration": 37.71, "rotation_down": 71.58, "downward_expansion": 89.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.5, 27.488546, 29.012974, 29.954498 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.23, "trend_reference": 31.59259, "distance_from_trend": -0.138089, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.73414, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.192806, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.918401, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.241926, "excess_performance": -0.249326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138089, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080911, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.192806, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186909, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.239184, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023548, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.241926, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.775152, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11022802, "relative_activity": 0.588384, "balance": 0.775152, "dry_up": 0.752512, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092562, "annualized_volatility": 0.414721, "from_high_reference": -0.37636, "from_low_reference": 0.11507 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.59259, "fair_value_reference": 33.73414, "structural_low": 24.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.044243, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.015127, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.418934, "worst_return": -0.153213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.059187, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.016405, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.285485, "worst_return": -0.178621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.165786, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.010573, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.709848, "worst_return": -0.163859, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 32.652257, "fair_value": 33.825312, "relative_strength": -27.908557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.951125, "energy": 62.640609, "activity_lines": [ 28.23, 29.197092, 30.182274, 31.119773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.16, "volume": 14779665, "typical_volume": 18457925.05, "trend": 32.277923, "fair_value": 33.794973, "relative_strength": -28.732376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.707865, "energy": 70.547628, "activity_lines": [ 26.994, 28.27184, 29.652571, 30.636402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.41, "volume": 12251216, "typical_volume": 18579714.5, "trend": 31.93159, "fair_value": 33.760424, "relative_strength": -23.231127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.43959, "energy": 72.694133, "activity_lines": [ 26.548667, 27.74724, 29.27882, 30.257826 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.23, "volume": 11022802, "typical_volume": 18734024.4, "trend": 31.59259, "fair_value": 33.73414, "relative_strength": -23.918401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.152572, "energy": 72.290054, "activity_lines": [ 26.5, 27.488546, 29.012974, 29.954498 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }