{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38849687-c3f9-4d3d-ada0-bff5885a85be", "symbol": "ALTOO", "name": "Toosla Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.719, "architecture_energy": 88.898, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.403, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 59.7, "downward_expansion": 97.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.001613, 0.002058, 0.007864, 0.020415 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0016, "trend_reference": 0.039453, "distance_from_trend": -0.959446, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.519138, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.996918, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.829686, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.980247, "excess_performance": -1.033558, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.959446, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.432462, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.996918, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028029, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988297, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065994, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.980247, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.621516, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37517414, "relative_activity": 1.61717, "balance": 0.621516, "dry_up": 2.466476, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 1.644231, "annualized_volatility": 1.471979, "from_high_reference": -0.996522, "from_low_reference": 0.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.039453, "fair_value_reference": 0.519138, "structural_low": 0.001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.081886, "positive_rate": 0.30303, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.072936, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.486111, "worst_return": -0.810811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.177778, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.231224, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.282282, "worst_return": -0.87438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.455882, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.512475, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.336336, "worst_return": -0.84, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114019, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.154348, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.465278, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019851, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.753467, "energy": 87.697925, "activity_lines": [ 0.001947, 0.003862, 0.014014, 0.028865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0014, "volume": 35532821, "typical_volume": 14633048.0, "trend": 0.04534, "fair_value": 0.533604, "relative_strength": -99.04124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.983096, "energy": 89.116265, "activity_lines": [ 0.001653, 0.002996, 0.0116, 0.025839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0018, "volume": 149071874, "typical_volume": 21869593.05, "trend": 0.042133, "fair_value": 0.526179, "relative_strength": -98.722154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.50814, "energy": 88.646399, "activity_lines": [ 0.00164, 0.002455, 0.009579, 0.02303 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0016, "volume": 37517414, "typical_volume": 23199425.05, "trend": 0.039453, "fair_value": 0.519138, "relative_strength": -98.829686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.719369, "energy": 88.897818, "activity_lines": [ 0.001613, 0.002058, 0.007864, 0.020415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }