{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "38901a7c-c49f-4348-879e-94b17b07038a",
    "symbol": "MJD",
    "name": "Major Development Public Company Limited",
    "exchange": "SET",
    "country": "TH",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SET.BK",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 53.469,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -5.777,
    "architecture_energy": 8.994,
    "architecture_maturity": 15.028,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.673,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 63.15,
        "rotation_up": 29.38,
        "upward_expansion": 29.11,
        "deceleration": 47.3,
        "rotation_down": 23.88,
        "downward_expansion": 44.45
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.326,
        0.320545,
        0.319571,
        0.32643
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 0.34,
    "trend_reference": 0.336667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.009901,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.806282,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.578311,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -20.528845,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.081081,
    "excess_performance": -0.273406,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.009901,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.034417,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.578311,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.05463,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.205288,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.091877,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.081081,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 7.090351,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1477900,
      "relative_activity": 0.763585,
      "balance": 7.090351,
      "dry_up": 1.020563,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.085973,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.538508,
      "from_high_reference": -0.451613,
      "from_low_reference": 0.172414
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.336667,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.806282,
      "structural_low": 0.29,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 19,
        "median_return": -0.018349,
        "positive_rate": 0.315789,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.315789,
        "median_excess_return": -0.024341,
        "regime_survival": 0.684211,
        "best_return": 0.10101,
        "worst_return": -0.203704,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.076964,
        "positive_rate": 0.125,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.125,
        "median_excess_return": -0.07595,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.106145,
        "worst_return": -0.333333,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.181818,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": -0.121642,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.042105,
        "worst_return": -0.477064,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.21967,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.207291,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.147368,
        "worst_return": -0.291971,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-01-13",
        "end": "2023-02-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.076471,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2023-03-03",
        "end": "2023-03-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.012346,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-03-24",
        "end": "2023-04-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.012658,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-04-28",
        "end": "2023-12-15",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.117647,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-12-22",
        "end": "2024-05-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.10219,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-06-07",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.112903,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.055046,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.54902,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-09-12",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.222222,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.051282,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-02-13",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.270833,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.058824,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 1.39,
        "volume": 344200,
        "typical_volume": 763845.0,
        "trend": 1.513,
        "fair_value": 1.724231,
        "relative_strength": -6.358554,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.685615,
        "energy": 53.789351,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.368667,
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          1.425333,
          1.46286
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
        "close": 1.4,
        "volume": 1467600,
        "typical_volume": 836235.0,
        "trend": 1.503667,
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        "energy": 45.502726,
        "activity_lines": [
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          1.419095,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-01",
        "close": 1.39,
        "volume": 1841500,
        "typical_volume": 924270.0,
        "trend": 1.495,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-08",
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        "volume": 344700,
        "typical_volume": 924710.0,
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        "relative_strength": -7.575574,
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        "direction": -41.201959,
        "energy": 27.250944,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-15",
        "close": 1.37,
        "volume": 584900,
        "typical_volume": 930070.0,
        "trend": 1.480667,
        "fair_value": 1.721987,
        "relative_strength": -8.411193,
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        "direction": -45.415718,
        "energy": 29.208808,
        "activity_lines": [
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          1.400857,
          1.433892
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
        "close": 1.38,
        "volume": 152400,
        "typical_volume": 916920.0,
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        "fair_value": 1.721474,
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        "energy": 27.967518,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-29",
        "close": 1.35,
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          1.419376
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-10-06",
        "close": 1.3,
        "volume": 434900,
        "typical_volume": 878520.0,
        "trend": 1.455333,
        "fair_value": 1.719423,
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        "energy": 55.855995,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-10-13",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-10-20",
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      },
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        "date": "2023-10-27",
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      },
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        "date": "2023-11-17",
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        "date": "2023-11-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12-08",
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        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -39.39446,
        "energy": 25.117843,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12-15",
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        "typical_volume": 568785.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12-22",
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        "typical_volume": 560275.0,
        "trend": 1.363667,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-12-29",
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        "relative_strength": 3.918926,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 23.974025,
        "energy": 25.913336,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2024-01-05",
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        "volume": 167100,
        "typical_volume": 530385.0,
        "trend": 1.355,
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        "relative_strength": 0.161184,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2024-01-12",
        "close": 1.36,
        "volume": 252500,
        "typical_volume": 469630.0,
        "trend": 1.351333,
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        "relative_strength": 1.283498,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2024-01-19",
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        "volume": 238400,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 5182700,
        "typical_volume": 3250735.0,
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        "fair_value": 0.825962,
        "relative_strength": -29.078309,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -47.922225,
        "energy": 26.576577,
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          0.314,
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          0.318286,
          0.328366
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.32,
        "volume": 1093800,
        "typical_volume": 3218700.0,
        "trend": 0.336667,
        "fair_value": 0.819423,
        "relative_strength": -28.403935,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -36.088663,
        "energy": 20.86556,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.315333,
          0.314909,
          0.317952,
          0.327247
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.32,
        "volume": 146700,
        "typical_volume": 3205335.0,
        "trend": 0.336,
        "fair_value": 0.812821,
        "relative_strength": -26.615276,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -33.054406,
        "energy": 15.208943,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.317333,
          0.316,
          0.317762,
          0.326172
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.34,
        "volume": 1477900,
        "typical_volume": 1935475.0,
        "trend": 0.336667,
        "fair_value": 0.806282,
        "relative_strength": -20.528845,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -5.777485,
        "energy": 8.994071,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.326,
          0.320545,
          0.319571,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}