{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3894cc0d-2d0d-4e53-865e-44834c7c0c97", "symbol": "MXL", "name": "MaxLinear Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.506, "architecture_energy": 17.826, "architecture_maturity": 77.596, "architecture_confidence": 83.23, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.23, "rotation_up": 20.79, "upward_expansion": 48.08, "deceleration": 84.86, "rotation_down": 34.53, "downward_expansion": 26.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.795333, 78.958182, 79.955524, 68.792387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 74.98, "trend_reference": 53.415667, "distance_from_trend": 0.403708, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.081186, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.113634, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 84.872111, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 3.005342, "excess_performance": 2.817888, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.403708, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.68857, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.113634, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.030857, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.848721, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.451699, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 3.005342, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.456978, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12180741, "relative_activity": 0.578378, "balance": 0.456978, "dry_up": 0.959658, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.295771, "annualized_volatility": 1.394355, "from_high_reference": -0.415588, "from_low_reference": 4.871574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.415667, "fair_value_reference": 24.081186, "structural_low": 14.7, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.008917, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.031645, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.419975, "worst_return": -0.303346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.127733, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.019257, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.363524, "worst_return": -0.233189, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.061876, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.059481, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.056755, "worst_return": -0.066998, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.262866, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.338415, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045969, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023427, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073394, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.194444, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.79945, "energy": 30.840736, "activity_lines": [ 85.714667, 87.440909, 78.400667, 64.679032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.59, "volume": 30921955, "typical_volume": 19911113.1, "trend": 49.939333, "fair_value": 23.468301, "relative_strength": 96.410121, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.294098, "energy": 21.342139, "activity_lines": [ 80.136667, 84.249455, 79.219381, 66.191677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.82, "volume": 21949911, "typical_volume": 20774963.25, "trend": 51.549667, "fair_value": 23.744391, "relative_strength": 77.855253, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.666049, "energy": 20.332416, "activity_lines": [ 74.113333, 80.568, 79.317762, 67.280753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.98, "volume": 12180741, "typical_volume": 21060163.5, "trend": 53.415667, "fair_value": 24.081186, "relative_strength": 84.872111, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.506397, "energy": 17.826436, "activity_lines": [ 72.795333, 78.958182, 79.955524, 68.792387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }