{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3896a0e7-8a3b-4673-8c96-070bd47cc889", "symbol": "MONO", "name": "Mono Next Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.329, "architecture_energy": 73.887, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.866, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.19, "rotation_up": 13.21, "upward_expansion": 16.32, "deceleration": 38.05, "rotation_down": 75.14, "downward_expansion": 94.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.704, 0.744909, 0.77981, 0.830215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.69, "trend_reference": 0.918333, "distance_from_trend": -0.248639, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.215064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.432129, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.738667, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.394737, "excess_performance": -0.587062, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.248639, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09375, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.432129, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081027, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.457387, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026411, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.394737, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.861336, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18217600, "relative_activity": 0.432774, "balance": 0.861336, "dry_up": 0.805065, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124861, "annualized_volatility": 0.447601, "from_high_reference": -0.627027, "from_low_reference": 0.061538 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.918333, "fair_value_reference": 1.215064, "structural_low": 0.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.010307, "positive_rate": 0.404762, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.022623, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 1.163636, "worst_return": -0.390625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.027211, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.042497, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 1.615385, "worst_return": -0.328125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.08427, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.103827, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.291139, "worst_return": -0.328125, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.721519, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.361789, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.271084, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017544, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.666667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.235251, "energy": 72.98754, "activity_lines": [ 0.733333, 0.778, 0.806571, 0.86157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.71, "volume": 27363700, "typical_volume": 42697080.0, "trend": 0.937333, "fair_value": 1.217692, "relative_strength": -45.97844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.839276, "energy": 74.484438, "activity_lines": [ 0.718667, 0.763273, 0.793429, 0.846172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.69, "volume": 18217600, "typical_volume": 42094910.0, "trend": 0.918333, "fair_value": 1.215064, "relative_strength": -45.738667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.329225, "energy": 73.887399, "activity_lines": [ 0.704, 0.744909, 0.77981, 0.830215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }