{ "ticker": { "uuid": "389c4a6c-7288-4b1c-a6be-aafb0dfd08ad", "symbol": "SEFER", "name": "SergeFerrari Group SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.032, "architecture_energy": 33.555, "architecture_maturity": 18.47, "architecture_confidence": 67.024, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.63, "rotation_up": 4.41, "upward_expansion": 19.49, "deceleration": 70.12, "rotation_down": 62.02, "downward_expansion": 55.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.24, 7.406909, 7.353431, 7.322144 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.02, "trend_reference": 7.416589, "distance_from_trend": -0.053473, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.628989, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058985, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.221648, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.150121, "excess_performance": -0.203432, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053473, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016009, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058985, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076957, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112216, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106513, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150121, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.399931, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8955, "relative_activity": 1.023815, "balance": 1.399931, "dry_up": 0.591966, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043321, "annualized_volatility": 0.357215, "from_high_reference": -0.205882, "from_low_reference": 0.158416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.416589, "fair_value_reference": 6.628989, "structural_low": 6.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.001695, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.020713, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.238035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.08727, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.07045, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.232975, "worst_return": -0.22796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.173588, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.171963, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.145763, "worst_return": -0.490909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086792, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008876, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.110465, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065327, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082324, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.46, "volume": 6242, "typical_volume": 10599.0, "trend": 7.462588, "fair_value": 6.679486, "relative_strength": -1.880683, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.524442, "energy": 11.773572, "activity_lines": [ 7.489333, 7.556454, 7.368552, 7.364715 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.22, "volume": 5359, "typical_volume": 9084.45, "trend": 7.437255, "fair_value": 6.656071, "relative_strength": -6.623261, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.840185, "energy": 17.026025, "activity_lines": [ 7.372, 7.499435, 7.372468, 7.349064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.02, "volume": 8955, "typical_volume": 8746.7, "trend": 7.416589, "fair_value": 6.628989, "relative_strength": -11.221648, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.031604, "energy": 33.555077, "activity_lines": [ 7.24, 7.406909, 7.353431, 7.322144 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }