{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38a07ae8-7b89-428f-8893-4e2ba908bea5", "symbol": "RMMZ", "name": "RiverNorth Managed Duration Municipal Income Fund II Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.043, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.635, "architecture_energy": 20.232, "architecture_maturity": 49.971, "architecture_confidence": 68.035, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.9, "rotation_up": 36.96, "upward_expansion": 62.55, "deceleration": 82.73, "rotation_down": 22.82, "downward_expansion": 12.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.814874, 14.824888, 14.781388, 14.707959 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.89, "trend_reference": 14.608757, "distance_from_trend": 0.019252, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.685875, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.087983, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.830829, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020643, "excess_performance": -0.104982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019252, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014621, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.087983, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00796, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078308, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01792, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020643, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.664473, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28245, "relative_activity": 0.377341, "balance": 0.664473, "dry_up": 0.776718, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020849, "annualized_volatility": 0.094935, "from_high_reference": -0.012576, "from_low_reference": 0.125109 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.608757, "fair_value_reference": 13.685875, "structural_low": 13.909115, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.001818, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.010162, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.029493, "worst_return": -0.043741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001969, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062165, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.01454, "worst_return": -0.061324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.040101, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058409, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.059525, "worst_return": 0.029445, "sufficient": false }, { 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81654.55, "trend": 14.536414, "fair_value": 13.647829, "relative_strength": -4.613075, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.282683, "energy": 45.224691, "activity_lines": [ 14.876475, 14.828002, 14.744538, 14.664136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.72, "volume": 50895, "typical_volume": 78066.0, "trend": 14.559807, "fair_value": 13.659618, "relative_strength": -4.955866, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.722646, "energy": 29.229295, "activity_lines": [ 14.826728, 14.813787, 14.752114, 14.67598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.75, "volume": 58420, "typical_volume": 76848.55, "trend": 14.584521, "fair_value": 13.671657, "relative_strength": -5.640053, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.659565, "energy": 18.867534, "activity_lines": [ 14.795744, 14.808765, 14.761007, 14.68825 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.89, "volume": 28245, "typical_volume": 74852.75, "trend": 14.608757, "fair_value": 13.685875, "relative_strength": -7.830829, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.635343, "energy": 20.232384, "activity_lines": [ 14.814874, 14.824888, 14.781388, 14.707959 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }