{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38aa21ab-a854-41bd-83a9-c7f8fd13e6c8", "symbol": "VIG", "name": "Vienna Insurance Group AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.175, "architecture_energy": 70.895, "architecture_maturity": 19.745, "architecture_confidence": 78.306, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.32, "rotation_up": 74.1, "upward_expansion": 90.2, "deceleration": 43.36, "rotation_down": 11.36, "downward_expansion": 14.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.173331, 67.585453, 65.841339, 64.813641 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 71.699997, "trend_reference": 63.914697, "distance_from_trend": 0.121808, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.88852, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.843732, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.676172, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.11265, "excess_performance": -0.061597, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.121808, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064967, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.843732, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007458, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026762, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047329, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11265, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.20062, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 252805, "relative_activity": 1.50308, "balance": 2.20062, "dry_up": 1.216666, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049262, "annualized_volatility": 0.273648, "from_high_reference": -0.040161, "from_low_reference": 0.712963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.914697, "fair_value_reference": 38.88852, "structural_low": 55.095883, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.017323, "positive_rate": 0.641026, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": 0.003927, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.126476, "worst_return": -0.087591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.051575, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.00237, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.369632, "worst_return": -0.071125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.165064, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.048906, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.440909, "worst_return": 0.023096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.868778, "energy": 52.308168, "activity_lines": [ 65.699998, 64.892473, 64.058977, 63.631147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.199997, "volume": 155926, "typical_volume": 202174.9, "trend": 63.522133, "fair_value": 38.253974, "relative_strength": -1.919254, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.934663, "energy": 52.666177, "activity_lines": [ 65.879998, 65.221513, 64.354082, 63.808114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.099998, "volume": 241064, "typical_volume": 198688.1, "trend": 63.692191, "fair_value": 38.568316, "relative_strength": 5.093549, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.4586, "energy": 64.475812, "activity_lines": [ 67.653331, 66.423635, 65.094497, 64.297009 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.699997, "volume": 252805, "typical_volume": 168191.35, "trend": 63.914697, "fair_value": 38.88852, "relative_strength": 2.676172, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.174831, "energy": 70.895381, "activity_lines": [ 69.173331, 67.585453, 65.841339, 64.813641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }