{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38ab88f7-a924-413f-ac8f-6427ed844f4d", "symbol": "KAM", "name": "K2 Asset Management Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.501, "architecture_energy": 38.919, "architecture_maturity": 92.117, "architecture_confidence": 83.985, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.97, "rotation_up": 27.52, "upward_expansion": 22.32, "deceleration": 46.08, "rotation_down": 37.01, "downward_expansion": 60.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.056333, 0.055818, 0.057905, 0.061804 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.054, "trend_reference": 0.066833, "distance_from_trend": -0.19202, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.062985, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14265, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.373872, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.28, "excess_performance": -0.343706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.19202, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104511, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14265, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224047, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.293739, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224802, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.28, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.125046, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 401652, "relative_activity": 1.48108, "balance": 0.125046, "dry_up": 2.239493, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082621, "annualized_volatility": 0.487619, "from_high_reference": -0.431579, "from_low_reference": 0.173913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.066833, "fair_value_reference": 0.062985, "structural_low": 0.046, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.007936, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002163, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.213118, "worst_return": -0.253732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.02, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.054933, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.262294, "worst_return": -0.243243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.102046, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.095078, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.343218, "worst_return": -0.193547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065573, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092315, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.34886, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", 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0.063252, "relative_strength": -18.181858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.328368, "energy": 35.142218, "activity_lines": [ 0.0576, 0.055836, 0.060276, 0.064314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.057, "volume": 528245, "typical_volume": 229728.1, "trend": 0.0687, "fair_value": 0.063195, "relative_strength": -21.840045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.263756, "energy": 28.025646, "activity_lines": [ 0.058, 0.055964, 0.059524, 0.06352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.056, "volume": 705042, "typical_volume": 251105.95, "trend": 0.0679, "fair_value": 0.063096, "relative_strength": -24.724449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.496936, "energy": 27.48747, "activity_lines": [ 0.0576, 0.056055, 0.058757, 0.062701 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.054, "volume": 401652, "typical_volume": 271188.55, "trend": 0.066833, "fair_value": 0.062985, "relative_strength": -29.373872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.501286, "energy": 38.918859, "activity_lines": [ 0.056333, 0.055818, 0.057905, 0.061804 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }