{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "38af3edb-b443-4c88-b8f1-75d14a577d1d",
    "symbol": "ZBAL",
    "name": "BMO Balanced ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 56.587,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 54.066,
    "architecture_energy": 34.723,
    "architecture_maturity": 62.131,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.319,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 31.66,
        "rotation_up": 32.07,
        "upward_expansion": 62.42,
        "deceleration": 90.99,
        "rotation_down": 27.43,
        "downward_expansion": 17.09
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        16.029333,
        16.061314,
        15.924225,
        15.722227
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 16.209999,
    "trend_reference": 15.493365,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.046254,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 13.298579,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218927,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.941261,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.071808,
    "excess_performance": -0.048613,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.046254,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.025424,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.218927,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004449,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.049413,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000294,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.071808,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.320077,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 146600,
      "relative_activity": 0.96021,
      "balance": 1.320077,
      "dry_up": 0.895857,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.017312,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.098044,
      "from_high_reference": -0.01101,
      "from_low_reference": 0.157728
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 15.493365,
      "fair_value_reference": 13.298579,
      "structural_low": 14.496296,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.01233,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003283,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.030505,
        "worst_return": -0.025365,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.018534,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001035,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.04101,
        "worst_return": -0.077254,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.035388,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.037959,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.085465,
        "worst_return": -0.018981,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.106723,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.023851,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.134219,
        "worst_return": -0.113642,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.019789,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.081877,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.007851,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.014759,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.045851,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0412,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024314,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.016377,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.02656,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.060588,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.019437,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "return": -0.00323,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.035525,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.017577,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "typical_volume": 212475.5,
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        "fair_value": 12.772876,
        "relative_strength": -7.27247,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "energy": 31.283433,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "fair_value": 12.832536,
        "relative_strength": -6.206878,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 229872.4,
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        "relative_strength": -4.780117,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 220070.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 12.993397,
        "relative_strength": -4.127415,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 67.975484,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 29800,
        "typical_volume": 194495.0,
        "trend": 15.177688,
        "fair_value": 13.02672,
        "relative_strength": -4.300146,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 77.480011,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 91.555824,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 176230.0,
        "trend": 15.273042,
        "fair_value": 13.098876,
        "relative_strength": -2.272967,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.998062,
        "energy": 85.715193,
        "activity_lines": [
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          15.624502,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 16.15,
        "volume": 12200,
        "typical_volume": 167610.0,
        "trend": 15.315528,
        "fair_value": 13.134074,
        "relative_strength": -3.358618,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.951888,
        "energy": 83.177582,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 16.120001,
        "volume": 148300,
        "typical_volume": 163470.0,
        "trend": 15.358012,
        "fair_value": 13.167784,
        "relative_strength": -3.49311,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.42429,
        "energy": 79.139406,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.1764,
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          15.571904
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 15.91,
        "volume": 113400,
        "typical_volume": 159235.0,
        "trend": 15.3915,
        "fair_value": 13.199843,
        "relative_strength": -4.429009,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.1522,
        "energy": 53.580868,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.090164,
          16.050861,
          15.797937,
          15.607516
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 15.91,
        "volume": 123300,
        "typical_volume": 151965.0,
        "trend": 15.422658,
        "fair_value": 13.231639,
        "relative_strength": -4.49192,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.466355,
        "energy": 38.676627,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.006067,
          16.041313,
          15.83489,
          15.640968
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 15.93,
        "volume": 163800,
        "typical_volume": 151390.0,
        "trend": 15.457828,
        "fair_value": 13.26409,
        "relative_strength": -3.75284,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.200749,
        "energy": 29.792804,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.960667,
          16.027833,
          15.868962,
          15.6737
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 16.209999,
        "volume": 146600,
        "typical_volume": 152675.0,
        "trend": 15.493365,
        "fair_value": 13.298579,
        "relative_strength": -4.941261,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.065698,
        "energy": 34.72334,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.029333,
          16.061314,
          15.924225,
          15.722227
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}