{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38b52d24-2edd-4921-a6c7-86f332b4e628", "symbol": "AFR0", "name": "Air France-KLM SA", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.569, "architecture_energy": 25.643, "architecture_maturity": 64.778, "architecture_confidence": 80.76, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.34, "rotation_up": 30.69, "upward_expansion": 66.59, "deceleration": 85.22, "rotation_down": 28.01, "downward_expansion": 16.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.302, 12.542182, 11.908448, 11.463714 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.585, "trend_reference": 11.123133, "distance_from_trend": 0.131426, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.360558, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.214703, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.270466, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.03751, "excess_performance": -0.027129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.131426, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.214703, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.259577, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022705, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089531, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.03751, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.683567, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49602, "relative_activity": 0.644686, "balance": 1.683567, "dry_up": 0.662628, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076807, "annualized_volatility": 0.554516, "from_high_reference": -0.170675, "from_low_reference": 0.493591 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.123133, "fair_value_reference": 10.360558, "structural_low": 8.426, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002449, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007746, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.135413, "worst_return": -0.121121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.021392, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.021039, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.467093, "worst_return": -0.031277, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.177255, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.172679, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.469705, "worst_return": -0.248268, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171551, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.182704, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063035, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17008, "active": false }, { 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99551.05, "trend": 11.072967, "fair_value": 10.417833, "relative_strength": 6.471454, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.0364, "energy": 75.545548, "activity_lines": [ 13.028, 12.595545, 11.557662, 11.259428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.75, "volume": 44573, "typical_volume": 87101.0, "trend": 11.0878, "fair_value": 10.391936, "relative_strength": -0.204357, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.951109, "energy": 45.174846, "activity_lines": [ 12.584333, 12.540727, 11.647071, 11.303108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.075, "volume": 50130, "typical_volume": 80394.65, "trend": 11.0828, "fair_value": 10.372994, "relative_strength": 0.444384, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.153552, "energy": 29.755019, "activity_lines": [ 12.296333, 12.511364, 11.75941, 11.366798 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.585, "volume": 49602, "typical_volume": 76939.8, "trend": 11.123133, "fair_value": 10.360558, "relative_strength": 2.270466, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.569162, "energy": 25.643432, "activity_lines": [ 12.302, 12.542182, 11.908448, 11.463714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }