{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38b61c74-6498-43c9-964b-8f52f3824881", "symbol": "ROLG", "name": "iShares Bloomberg Enhanced Roll Yield Commodity Swap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.633, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.923, "architecture_energy": 35.737, "architecture_maturity": 35.125, "architecture_confidence": 61.891, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.08, "rotation_up": 66.5, "upward_expansion": 70.13, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 10.02, "downward_expansion": 11.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.039833, 7.920218, 7.971667, 7.911044 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.042, "trend_reference": 7.72235, "distance_from_trend": 0.041393, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.252103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.286287, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.383942, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.179698, "excess_performance": 0.128463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041393, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067608, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.286287, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065118, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.043839, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129249, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.179698, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.03222, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 627320, "relative_activity": 2.479891, "balance": 2.03222, "dry_up": 1.285025, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031255, "annualized_volatility": 0.182968, "from_high_reference": -0.096404, "from_low_reference": 0.401778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.72235, "fair_value_reference": 6.252103, "structural_low": 6.4063, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.186719, "energy": 29.544413, "activity_lines": [ 7.6587, 7.830873, 7.931198, 7.789662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.97, "volume": 172815, "typical_volume": 272652.2, "trend": 7.56225, "fair_value": 6.208613, "relative_strength": 7.257008, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.096206, "energy": 21.28135, "activity_lines": [ 7.748933, 7.829573, 7.93694, 7.81944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.2115, "volume": 347326, "typical_volume": 278416.9, "trend": 7.62035, "fair_value": 6.224667, "relative_strength": 8.766988, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.391408, "energy": 22.265798, "activity_lines": [ 7.914433, 7.875891, 7.962183, 7.861327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.025, "volume": 152793, "typical_volume": 240987.1, "trend": 7.676033, "fair_value": 6.237033, "relative_strength": 4.753809, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.393325, "energy": 28.992667, "activity_lines": [ 7.990467, 7.893445, 7.96621, 7.887433 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.042, "volume": 627320, "typical_volume": 252962.7, "trend": 7.72235, "fair_value": 6.252103, "relative_strength": 4.383942, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.922521, "energy": 35.736725, "activity_lines": [ 8.039833, 7.920218, 7.971667, 7.911044 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }