{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38b80c43-2af2-4900-98b5-58e0de80fa85", "symbol": "6799", "name": "M3 Technology Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.847, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.92, "architecture_energy": 37.529, "architecture_maturity": 12.686, "architecture_confidence": 67.76, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.92, "rotation_up": 16.79, "upward_expansion": 21.43, "deceleration": 52.68, "rotation_down": 58.9, "downward_expansion": 48.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.351926, 83.57446, 88.335372, 87.603142 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 79.099998, "trend_reference": 86.31411, "distance_from_trend": -0.08358, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 112.516411, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.296991, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.961908, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037713, "excess_performance": -0.383445, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08358, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025392, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.296991, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159139, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.319619, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083366, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037713, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.927948, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 874111, "relative_activity": 0.287697, "balance": 0.927948, "dry_up": 0.643819, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152337, "annualized_volatility": 0.577982, "from_high_reference": -0.329661, "from_low_reference": 0.162975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 86.31411, "fair_value_reference": 112.516411, "structural_low": 68.01522, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.030822, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.096018, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.123675, "worst_return": -0.056684, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.084633, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.227739, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.066526, "worst_return": -0.10274, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.166064, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.397123, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.115714, "worst_return": -0.216414, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.733429, "volume": 3623158, "typical_volume": 2994241.25, "trend": 86.62131, "fair_value": 113.200936, "relative_strength": -28.43282, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.296155, "energy": 28.703387, "activity_lines": [ 81.128104, 86.693055, 89.94291, 88.377428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 82.083984, "volume": 1059080, "typical_volume": 3020253.95, "trend": 86.56411, "fair_value": 112.87435, "relative_strength": -31.307814, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.174683, "energy": 37.281909, "activity_lines": [ 80.686812, 85.269429, 89.29215, 88.084697 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 79.099998, "volume": 874111, "typical_volume": 3038307.15, "trend": 86.31411, "fair_value": 112.516411, "relative_strength": -31.961908, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.920417, "energy": 37.528851, "activity_lines": [ 80.351926, 83.57446, 88.335372, 87.603142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }