{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38ba898a-c99a-4130-9ad7-fb26e70f4cec", "symbol": "7030", "name": "Mobile Telecommunications Company Saudi Arabia", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.854, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.188, "architecture_energy": 56.748, "architecture_maturity": 41.223, "architecture_confidence": 90.518, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.4, "rotation_up": 27.67, "upward_expansion": 25.54, "deceleration": 28.02, "rotation_down": 42.4, "downward_expansion": 75.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.253333, 10.239232, 10.407054, 10.633881 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.28, "trend_reference": 10.852911, "distance_from_trend": -0.052789, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.114941, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.075119, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.941966, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.056881, "excess_performance": -0.025051, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052789, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013629, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.075119, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00727, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002477, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056881, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.547444, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8345229, "relative_activity": 0.889095, "balance": 0.547444, "dry_up": 0.909403, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020364, "annualized_volatility": 0.165194, "from_high_reference": -0.150413, "from_low_reference": 0.02376 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.852911, "fair_value_reference": 11.114941, "structural_low": 10.041419, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.00667, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.00605, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.208178, "worst_return": -0.10104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.019849, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.032289, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.428037, "worst_return": -0.138486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.03, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.003702, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.344678, "worst_return": -0.089885, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089792, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058772, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038033, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045802, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076147, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", 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"close": 10.16, "volume": 6459404, "typical_volume": 8976467.05, "trend": 10.882578, "fair_value": 11.177862, "relative_strength": -4.876424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.520961, "energy": 64.261434, "activity_lines": [ 10.203765, 10.276314, 10.625813, 10.796675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.15, "volume": 4456752, "typical_volume": 8885176.4, "trend": 10.875245, "fair_value": 11.161968, "relative_strength": -4.202444, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.190204, "energy": 71.98265, "activity_lines": [ 10.174991, 10.243001, 10.553825, 10.749412 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.18, "volume": 6193727, "typical_volume": 8683612.75, "trend": 10.865245, "fair_value": 11.14485, "relative_strength": -4.571793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.828473, "energy": 65.431026, "activity_lines": [ 10.170572, 10.222348, 10.491028, 10.704558 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.35, "volume": 15147654, "typical_volume": 9085899.7, "trend": 10.860245, "fair_value": 11.129294, "relative_strength": -1.082486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.425378, "energy": 59.834162, "activity_lines": [ 10.232, 10.237188, 10.449898, 10.671316 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.28, "volume": 8345229, "typical_volume": 9386206.55, "trend": 10.852911, "fair_value": 11.114941, "relative_strength": -3.941966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.187923, "energy": 56.748412, "activity_lines": [ 10.253333, 10.239232, 10.407054, 10.633881 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }