{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38bbe6c8-feb8-420b-aea3-4081b60ef27b", "symbol": "STXK", "name": "STRIVE SMALL-CAP ETF", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.605, "architecture_energy": 58.18, "architecture_maturity": 52.874, "architecture_confidence": 79.669, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.47, "rotation_up": 56.27, "upward_expansion": 82.26, "deceleration": 63.52, "rotation_down": 25.93, "downward_expansion": 8.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.496687, 38.33093, 37.587291, 36.843055 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 39.199, "trend_reference": 36.086119, "distance_from_trend": 0.086263, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.627039, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.279882, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.586463, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093281, "excess_performance": -0.032344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086263, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045423, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.279882, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047041, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005865, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017555, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093281, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.212887, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28882, "relative_activity": 0.848703, "balance": 2.212887, "dry_up": 1.150893, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025785, "annualized_volatility": 0.150372, "from_high_reference": -0.005732, "from_low_reference": 0.283715 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.086119, "fair_value_reference": 30.627039, "structural_low": 32.305, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.010202, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.000823, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.101131, "worst_return": -0.074838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01788, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.030867, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.105572, "worst_return": -0.006897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.098653, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.014667, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.124697, "worst_return": -0.072418, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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35.955274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 38.3351, "volume": 21028, "typical_volume": 35104.85, "trend": 35.497176, "fair_value": 30.317295, "relative_strength": 1.041519, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.705454, "energy": 80.223094, "activity_lines": [ 38.263912, 37.65914, 36.703122, 36.147687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.3668, "volume": 22422, "typical_volume": 33672.55, "trend": 35.65277, "fair_value": 30.393831, "relative_strength": 2.648814, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.260779, "energy": 81.399945, "activity_lines": [ 38.347921, 37.874444, 36.946268, 36.332824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.0066, "volume": 13998, "typical_volume": 32496.95, "trend": 35.791207, "fair_value": 30.466519, "relative_strength": 2.216801, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.979286, "energy": 65.48019, "activity_lines": [ 38.260649, 37.990227, 37.140607, 36.484684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.0917, "volume": 91361, "typical_volume": 34796.1, "trend": 35.944746, "fair_value": 30.541968, "relative_strength": 1.253381, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.761274, "energy": 51.791257, "activity_lines": [ 38.17708, 38.075672, 37.323374, 36.633103 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.199, "volume": 28882, "typical_volume": 34030.75, "trend": 36.086119, "fair_value": 30.627039, "relative_strength": 0.586463, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.605069, "energy": 58.179912, "activity_lines": [ 38.496687, 38.33093, 37.587291, 36.843055 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }