{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38bf0a18-5f7d-4025-91a8-572832072da7", "symbol": "INAI", "name": "Invesco Morningstar Global Next Gen AI Index ETF (CAD)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.223, "architecture_energy": 35.321, "architecture_maturity": 73.747, "architecture_confidence": 92.705, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.59, "rotation_up": 35.84, "upward_expansion": 59.69, "deceleration": 88.24, "rotation_down": 27.35, "downward_expansion": 21.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.333998, 50.415635, 49.580238, 47.34086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 52.599998, "trend_reference": 44.673167, "distance_from_trend": 0.177441, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.362775, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.576607, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.178323, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.343894, "excess_performance": 0.223472, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.177441, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078106, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.576607, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023665, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.101783, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039527, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.343894, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.231034, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2900, "relative_activity": 0.571429, "balance": 1.231034, "dry_up": 0.866995, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052918, "annualized_volatility": 0.301776, "from_high_reference": -0.018474, "from_low_reference": 0.526375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.673167, "fair_value_reference": 33.362775, "structural_low": 34.759998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.0369, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.055168, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.024366, "worst_return": -0.061305, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.102099, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.158701, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.102099, "worst_return": -0.102099, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.209621, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.110548, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.209621, "worst_return": 0.209621, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 50.32, "volume": 2700, "typical_volume": 5765.0, "trend": 41.994758, "fair_value": 32.259273, "relative_strength": 12.067412, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.434746, "energy": 67.8519, "activity_lines": [ 50.176, 48.856909, 45.072238, 43.524698 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 53.59, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5530.0, "trend": 42.466044, "fair_value": 32.428564, "relative_strength": 18.668784, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.655712, "energy": 74.389716, "activity_lines": [ 51.43, 50.016909, 46.115833, 44.272778 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 49.810001, "volume": 2200, "typical_volume": 5205.0, "trend": 42.749752, "fair_value": 32.565426, "relative_strength": 9.98041, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.195611, "energy": 63.579752, "activity_lines": [ 51.065334, 50.240182, 46.738429, 44.746582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 50.669998, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 4965.0, "trend": 43.06091, "fair_value": 32.706868, "relative_strength": 10.709738, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.258027, "energy": 61.004955, "activity_lines": [ 50.933333, 50.507454, 47.392119, 45.257566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 51.790001, "volume": 7900, "typical_volume": 5110.0, "trend": 43.45254, "fair_value": 32.854799, "relative_strength": 12.59976, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.304042, "energy": 62.177336, "activity_lines": [ 51.237333, 50.877818, 48.095476, 45.820733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.52, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 5370.0, "trend": 43.714818, "fair_value": 32.975301, "relative_strength": 5.44132, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.696298, "energy": 42.170339, "activity_lines": [ 50.332, 50.536727, 48.427214, 46.147666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.259998, "volume": 3700, "typical_volume": 5145.0, "trend": 43.962167, "fair_value": 33.091978, "relative_strength": 4.421716, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.767456, "energy": 33.797214, "activity_lines": [ 49.459999, 50.156363, 48.685428, 46.440903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.599998, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 5145.0, "trend": 44.2885, "fair_value": 33.217038, "relative_strength": 7.560501, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.554883, "energy": 27.444418, "activity_lines": [ 49.389999, 50.018727, 49.01819, 46.804634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.599998, "volume": 2900, "typical_volume": 5075.0, "trend": 44.673167, "fair_value": 33.362775, "relative_strength": 10.178323, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.223262, "energy": 35.320544, "activity_lines": [ 50.333998, 50.415635, 49.580238, 47.34086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }