{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38c112eb-644e-4fbc-8bf9-255c2ba4fbb6", "symbol": "DX", "name": "Dynex Capital Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.023, "architecture_energy": 8.109, "architecture_maturity": 35.265, "architecture_confidence": 69.572, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.54, "rotation_up": 24.6, "upward_expansion": 22.17, "deceleration": 49.62, "rotation_down": 34.15, "downward_expansion": 53.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.844669, 12.855072, 12.858364, 12.857651 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.95, "trend_reference": 12.950961, "distance_from_trend": -7.4e-05, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.521349, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.230831, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.26032, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031197, "excess_performance": -0.156821, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -7.4e-05, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000789, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.230831, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058918, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082603, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047781, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031197, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.096881, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28225622, "relative_activity": 1.112453, "balance": 1.096881, "dry_up": 1.260085, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033573, "annualized_volatility": 0.178833, "from_high_reference": -0.087032, "from_low_reference": 0.210688 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.950961, "fair_value_reference": 10.521349, "structural_low": 11.828697, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.011859, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.001548, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.120306, "worst_return": -0.245809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.013228, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040072, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.095321, "worst_return": -0.287498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044231, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058293, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.233688, "worst_return": -0.240144, "sufficient": 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.070295, "energy": 15.012184, "activity_lines": [ 12.988054, 12.893942, 12.866582, 12.899827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.6, "volume": 39518164, "typical_volume": 26852020.9, "trend": 12.973838, "fair_value": 10.467339, "relative_strength": -6.72927, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.979134, "energy": 12.59291, "activity_lines": [ 12.878246, 12.853649, 12.848452, 12.875113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.71, "volume": 25720525, "typical_volume": 26487415.15, "trend": 12.956835, "fair_value": 10.493596, "relative_strength": -6.856974, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.709135, "energy": 15.650887, "activity_lines": [ 12.812955, 12.833962, 12.84234, 12.858092 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.95, "volume": 28225622, "typical_volume": 25372427.1, "trend": 12.950961, "fair_value": 10.521349, "relative_strength": -8.26032, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.023214, "energy": 8.108978, "activity_lines": [ 12.844669, 12.855072, 12.858364, 12.857651 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }