{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38c5e1e5-a886-40de-8381-335293860b82", "symbol": "300496", "name": "Thunder Software Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.851, "architecture_energy": 29.69, "architecture_maturity": 47.77, "architecture_confidence": 85.943, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.03, "rotation_up": 17.84, "upward_expansion": 2.46, "deceleration": 52.92, "rotation_down": 48.63, "downward_expansion": 73.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.888667, 60.189819, 61.624988, 62.723641 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 62.5, "trend_reference": 65.458215, "distance_from_trend": -0.045192, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 61.557062, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015318, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.299332, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.167287, "excess_performance": -0.174687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045192, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022022, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.015318, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023082, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092993, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071815, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167287, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.042827, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89379638, "relative_activity": 1.386301, "balance": 1.042827, "dry_up": 1.334329, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100458, "annualized_volatility": 0.433225, "from_high_reference": -0.299542, "from_low_reference": 0.204007 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.458215, "fair_value_reference": 61.557062, "structural_low": 51.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.017294, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.006584, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.558722, "worst_return": -0.211411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.031709, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.033012, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.609564, "worst_return": -0.392459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.068248, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.084557, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.800782, "worst_return": -0.450373, "sufficient": true }, { 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63.27426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.380001, "volume": 72298163, "typical_volume": 62611808.1, "trend": 65.618778, "fair_value": 61.723894, "relative_strength": -8.02404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.751344, "energy": 42.895989, "activity_lines": [ 58.822001, 59.875092, 61.56856, 62.924853 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.5, "volume": 89379638, "typical_volume": 64473476.5, "trend": 65.458215, "fair_value": 61.557062, "relative_strength": -9.299332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.851461, "energy": 29.689803, "activity_lines": [ 59.888667, 60.189819, 61.624988, 62.723641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }