{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38c5f95c-2269-42d5-863c-0103060dab94", "symbol": "BFI", "name": "Tiong Seng Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.981, "architecture_energy": 47.674, "architecture_maturity": 53.85, "architecture_confidence": 93.771, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.1, "rotation_up": 20.56, "upward_expansion": 7.03, "deceleration": 60.1, "rotation_down": 58.98, "downward_expansion": 82.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.075067, 0.077418, 0.08381, 0.087555 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.074, "trend_reference": 0.092533, "distance_from_trend": -0.200288, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.080205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077366, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.691938, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.27451, "excess_performance": -0.429345, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.200288, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041436, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077366, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.369497, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.326919, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.345407, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.27451, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.554531, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.554531, "dry_up": 0.530752, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130977, "annualized_volatility": 0.706024, "from_high_reference": -0.463768, "from_low_reference": 0.057143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.092533, "fair_value_reference": 0.080205, "structural_low": 0.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": -0.02286, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.213483, "worst_return": -0.262626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.054054, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.045646, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.146341, "worst_return": -0.261364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.132791, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.147286, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.097561, "worst_return": -0.245763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.138608, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.234196, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.073171, "worst_return": -0.423729, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112903, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.27027, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.207317, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.198113, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043956, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011905, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.235294, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009804, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.116505, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032967, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.26, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.063, "volume": 88600, "typical_volume": 44520.0, "trend": 0.0936, "fair_value": 0.124579, "relative_strength": -33.570245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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"typical_volume": 196760.0, "trend": 0.096033, "fair_value": 0.080205, "relative_strength": -36.248965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.560276, "energy": 83.732917, "activity_lines": [ 0.0776, 0.083691, 0.0891, 0.092314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.09, "volume": 175900, "typical_volume": 185985.0, "trend": 0.096267, "fair_value": 0.080244, "relative_strength": -18.058982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.30799, "energy": 69.174091, "activity_lines": [ 0.080267, 0.083909, 0.088886, 0.091925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.07, "volume": 97400, "typical_volume": 149445.0, "trend": 0.0952, "fair_value": 0.080192, "relative_strength": -36.410439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.76138, "energy": 72.501727, "activity_lines": [ 0.076133, 0.080745, 0.086833, 0.09023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.074, "volume": 34600, "typical_volume": 145065.0, "trend": 0.094267, "fair_value": 0.080199, "relative_strength": -32.536738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.285674, "energy": 50.468307, "activity_lines": [ 0.075333, 0.078927, 0.085271, 0.088862 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.074, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 145030.0, "trend": 0.092533, "fair_value": 0.080205, "relative_strength": -32.691938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.981496, "energy": 47.673805, "activity_lines": [ 0.075067, 0.077418, 0.08381, 0.087555 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }