{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38c64ece-b263-41de-ad0c-c97b38aa5d12", "symbol": "SPXU", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRAPRO SHORT S&P 500 (POST REV SPLIT)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.924, "architecture_energy": 57.216, "architecture_maturity": 68.01, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.51, "rotation_up": 27.62, "upward_expansion": 8.67, "deceleration": 53.48, "rotation_down": 54.07, "downward_expansion": 82.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.272667, 36.946444, 38.125552, 40.930794 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.58, "trend_reference": 44.013606, "distance_from_trend": -0.237054, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 91.585796, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.633349, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.616414, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.296407, "excess_performance": -0.422031, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.237054, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085645, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.633349, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005069, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.376164, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006658, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.296407, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.426908, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41301709, "relative_activity": 0.903182, "balance": 0.426908, "dry_up": 0.892232, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087308, "annualized_volatility": 0.42671, "from_high_reference": -0.465712, "from_low_reference": 0.016344 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.013606, "fair_value_reference": 91.585796, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.234351, "energy": 50.232237, "activity_lines": [ 37.752667, 37.765898, 39.485871, 42.121906 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.27, "volume": 48296034, "typical_volume": 45706040.35, "trend": 44.4587, "fair_value": 92.513597, "relative_strength": -29.326759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.504508, "energy": 47.237463, "activity_lines": [ 37.544667, 37.689496, 38.940492, 41.632645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.58, "volume": 41301709, "typical_volume": 45729099.95, "trend": 44.013606, "fair_value": 91.585796, "relative_strength": -37.616414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.923761, "energy": 57.215924, "activity_lines": [ 36.272667, 36.946444, 38.125552, 40.930794 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }