{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38c9ebb9-1a33-47fd-a272-ad6f50f3cdcf", "symbol": "BAK", "name": "Braskem SA Class A", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.581, "architecture_energy": 61.303, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.007, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.45, "rotation_up": 16.07, "upward_expansion": 11.41, "deceleration": 43.85, "rotation_down": 70.11, "downward_expansion": 89.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.378667, 2.513455, 3.032667, 3.278882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.29, "trend_reference": 3.5065, "distance_from_trend": -0.346927, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.240673, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.563033, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.180011, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.370879, "excess_performance": -0.496504, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.346927, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016547, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.563033, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193302, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.3718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.357413, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.370879, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.560202, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5798898, "relative_activity": 0.495713, "balance": 0.560202, "dry_up": 0.664951, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.268619, "annualized_volatility": 0.839563, "from_high_reference": -0.575533, "from_low_reference": 0.040909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.5065, "fair_value_reference": 5.240673, "structural_low": 2.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.013257, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.043545, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.281513, "worst_return": -0.244444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.048433, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.103085, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.512987, "worst_return": -0.310198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.084375, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.197518, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.277143, "worst_return": -0.410853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.32102, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.47578, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.240331, "worst_return": -0.441509, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.172988, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.182724, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077886, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.063566, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.265604, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.43738, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.247423, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025352, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057441, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.277778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.163462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.324251, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004082, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069106, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.21, "volume": 4408653, "typical_volume": 5445486.4, "trend": 9.174667, "fair_value": 12.949842, "relative_strength": -14.446134, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", 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3.481, 3.581656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.46, "volume": 7141625, "typical_volume": 13505899.7, "trend": 3.568167, "fair_value": 5.386058, "relative_strength": -31.427138, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.006026, "energy": 77.691467, "activity_lines": [ 2.532667, 2.945455, 3.362881, 3.50943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.46, "volume": 7671675, "typical_volume": 12349216.95, "trend": 3.5525, "fair_value": 5.335545, "relative_strength": -30.498592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.792905, "energy": 72.381215, "activity_lines": [ 2.49, 2.774909, 3.251286, 3.437935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.33, "volume": 10502425, "typical_volume": 12140758.65, "trend": 3.532833, "fair_value": 5.288622, "relative_strength": -34.404676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.380355, "energy": 65.958195, "activity_lines": [ 2.436, 2.625091, 3.139, 3.359065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.29, "volume": 5798898, "typical_volume": 11698092.6, "trend": 3.5065, "fair_value": 5.240673, "relative_strength": -37.180011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.581289, "energy": 61.30265, "activity_lines": [ 2.378667, 2.513455, 3.032667, 3.278882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }