{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38d173fd-1a94-4ae4-be64-df4ec8c33abc", "symbol": "R2US", "name": "State Street SPDR Russell 2000 US Small Cap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.124, "architecture_energy": 53.422, "architecture_maturity": 95.063, "architecture_confidence": 77.439, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.62, "rotation_up": 43.29, "upward_expansion": 69.1, "deceleration": 88.28, "rotation_down": 27.76, "downward_expansion": 21.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.553331, 75.697635, 74.105475, 72.005397 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 76.589996, "trend_reference": 69.577666, "distance_from_trend": 0.100784, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.340769, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.312804, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.031535, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.172356, "excess_performance": 0.001464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100784, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06865, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.312804, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056723, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000315, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022418, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172356, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.233022, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28890, "relative_activity": 0.61441, "balance": 1.233022, "dry_up": 0.804836, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024054, "annualized_volatility": 0.130514, "from_high_reference": -0.008415, "from_low_reference": 0.385241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.577666, "fair_value_reference": 58.340769, "structural_low": 60.810001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.000188, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.003722, "regime_survival": 0.62963, "best_return": 0.098937, "worst_return": -0.139071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.033223, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.022582, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.093101, "worst_return": -0.131886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02488, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.024469, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.126236, "worst_return": -0.092448, "sufficient": true }, { 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76.054666, 74.49509, 71.510381, 69.683591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 76.019997, "volume": 22915, "typical_volume": 76138.55, "trend": 67.947333, "fair_value": 57.698461, "relative_strength": 1.837086, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.078832, "energy": 86.578718, "activity_lines": [ 76.271332, 75.020362, 72.172714, 70.231763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 75.449997, "volume": 61339, "typical_volume": 74856.55, "trend": 68.369667, "fair_value": 57.860128, "relative_strength": 2.401964, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.475063, "energy": 81.292966, "activity_lines": [ 76.072664, 75.315635, 72.731618, 70.715806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.730003, "volume": 31482, "typical_volume": 73095.2, "trend": 68.805667, "fair_value": 58.018782, "relative_strength": 2.799289, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.0798, "energy": 63.695119, "activity_lines": [ 75.920666, 75.573272, 73.267095, 71.190666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.059998, "volume": 29665, "typical_volume": 53811.35, "trend": 69.216, "fair_value": 58.168654, "relative_strength": -0.272321, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.341306, "energy": 51.954739, "activity_lines": [ 75.213999, 75.424544, 73.592333, 71.529656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.589996, "volume": 28890, "typical_volume": 47020.75, "trend": 69.577666, "fair_value": 58.340769, "relative_strength": 0.031535, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.124485, "energy": 53.422253, "activity_lines": [ 75.553331, 75.697635, 74.105475, 72.005397 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }