{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38d4bb71-830a-4184-bd4e-9d3902691930", "symbol": "GTEK", "name": "GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TRUST FUTURE TECH LEADERS ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.107, "architecture_energy": 25.74, "architecture_maturity": 74.497, "architecture_confidence": 92.168, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.76, "rotation_up": 24.34, "upward_expansion": 55.52, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 31.77, "downward_expansion": 19.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.941153, 57.051809, 56.397243, 53.636984 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 58.3891, "trend_reference": 49.960003, "distance_from_trend": 0.168717, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.973723, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.669513, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.691393, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.424802, "excess_performance": 0.299177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.168717, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136456, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.669513, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029846, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.156914, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076613, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.424802, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.939719, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69218, "relative_activity": 0.660409, "balance": 0.939719, "dry_up": 1.446223, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076106, "annualized_volatility": 0.323684, "from_high_reference": -0.076414, "from_low_reference": 0.689499 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.960003, "fair_value_reference": 34.973723, "structural_low": 39.24, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041025, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.021887, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.081453, "worst_return": -0.000938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.07965, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.019086, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.105148, "worst_return": -0.136347, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.097289, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.016567, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.504588, "worst_return": 0.022162, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"relative_strength": 22.872313, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.538967, "energy": 59.325142, "activity_lines": [ 59.796887, 58.986333, 55.220784, 51.945417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.03, "volume": 112580, "typical_volume": 85138.4, "trend": 48.469927, "fair_value": 34.39403, "relative_strength": 13.067608, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.778859, "energy": 39.739173, "activity_lines": [ 57.849733, 58.271509, 55.483898, 52.335486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.7106, "volume": 236390, "typical_volume": 95074.75, "trend": 48.955113, "fair_value": 34.575789, "relative_strength": 14.605695, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.54428, "energy": 27.064186, "activity_lines": [ 56.443067, 57.695858, 55.76205, 52.73811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.9, "volume": 188131, "typical_volume": 102595.4, "trend": 49.401447, "fair_value": 34.758386, "relative_strength": 11.177201, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.136747, "energy": 24.163753, "activity_lines": [ 55.252827, 56.94428, 55.897429, 53.057135 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.3891, "volume": 69218, "typical_volume": 104810.8, "trend": 49.960003, "fair_value": 34.973723, "relative_strength": 15.691393, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.106936, "energy": 25.739714, "activity_lines": [ 55.941153, 57.051809, 56.397243, 53.636984 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }