{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "38d4fbeb-a0b0-4359-b04c-f61c6d1e4954",
    "symbol": "MOG-B",
    "name": "Moog Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 51.146,
    "architecture_energy": 41.319,
    "architecture_maturity": 68.469,
    "architecture_confidence": 91.729,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.89,
        "rotation_up": 38.4,
        "upward_expansion": 66.3,
        "deceleration": 88.27,
        "rotation_down": 27.1,
        "downward_expansion": 18.64
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        404.646667,
        407.347682,
        382.948301,
        365.995168
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 411.85,
    "trend_reference": 346.129403,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.189873,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 207.568305,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.984166,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 27.022209,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.242462,
    "excess_performance": 0.116837,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.189873,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.191162,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.984166,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.231174,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.270222,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.074243,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.242462,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.367226,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 667,
      "relative_activity": 0.410436,
      "balance": 1.367226,
      "dry_up": 0.472279,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.067315,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.488002,
      "from_high_reference": -0.043411,
      "from_low_reference": 1.118597
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 346.129403,
      "fair_value_reference": 207.568305,
      "structural_low": 294.619884,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.010654,
        "positive_rate": 0.538462,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.538462,
        "median_excess_return": 0.027644,
        "regime_survival": 0.461538,
        "best_return": 0.194512,
        "worst_return": -0.079649,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.068664,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007083,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.421254,
        "worst_return": -0.230168,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.085109,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.092873,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.360255,
        "worst_return": -0.071996,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.347657,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.169361,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.748452,
        "worst_return": -0.041452,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.056512,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009178,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.06439,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.111297,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.036296,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.01439,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.370956,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.003435,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.075677,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-05-29",
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        "return": 0.207238,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": 0.247377,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": 48.241836,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "relative_strength": 42.989251,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 1719.85,
        "trend": 325.95437,
        "fair_value": 199.91982,
        "relative_strength": 35.235464,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.721664,
        "energy": 87.221407,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 395.72,
        "volume": 1150,
        "typical_volume": 1719.85,
        "trend": 330.999755,
        "fair_value": 201.751866,
        "relative_strength": 30.925697,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.440783,
        "energy": 63.688901,
        "activity_lines": [
          411.576,
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          367.476363,
          352.687302
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 403.32,
        "volume": 678,
        "typical_volume": 1686.35,
        "trend": 336.08654,
        "fair_value": 203.708124,
        "relative_strength": 32.80069,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.290238,
        "energy": 56.825262,
        "activity_lines": [
          406.986667,
          402.698727,
          372.830706,
          357.353124
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 399.4725,
        "volume": 575,
        "typical_volume": 1620.15,
        "trend": 341.284291,
        "fair_value": 205.639719,
        "relative_strength": 28.855539,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.554562,
        "energy": 43.382403,
        "activity_lines": [
          402.9295,
          404.611364,
          377.531658,
          361.442541
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 411.85,
        "volume": 667,
        "typical_volume": 1625.1,
        "trend": 346.129403,
        "fair_value": 207.568305,
        "relative_strength": 27.022209,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.146199,
        "energy": 41.318949,
        "activity_lines": [
          404.646667,
          407.347682,
          382.948301,
          365.995168
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}