{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "38dd8d5a-623b-4c76-bd5d-374862b0fd5f",
    "symbol": "IBDW",
    "name": "ISHARES TRUST IBONDS DEC 2031 TERM CORPORATE ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 74.778,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -54.843,
    "architecture_energy": 48.914,
    "architecture_maturity": 4.288,
    "architecture_confidence": 91.996,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.94,
        "rotation_up": 13.72,
        "upward_expansion": 9.99,
        "deceleration": 39.66,
        "rotation_down": 61.44,
        "downward_expansion": 85.66
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        20.586688,
        20.622663,
        20.657405,
        20.684033
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 20.65,
    "trend_reference": 20.724723,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.003606,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 19.355453,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066883,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -11.038141,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.009108,
    "excess_performance": -0.134733,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003606,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000339,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.066883,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.019938,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.110381,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.010192,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.009108,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.960268,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2579367,
      "relative_activity": 0.985074,
      "balance": 0.960268,
      "dry_up": 0.939009,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.007797,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.038876,
      "from_high_reference": -0.018841,
      "from_low_reference": 0.024665
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 20.724723,
      "fair_value_reference": 19.355453,
      "structural_low": 20.459316,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.021691,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003984,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
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        "worst_return": -0.034654,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.009428,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 2633724,
        "typical_volume": 2722744.65,
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        "relative_strength": -8.175065,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "energy": 52.378083,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 20.5381,
        "volume": 2378639,
        "typical_volume": 2653280.35,
        "trend": 20.727718,
        "fair_value": 19.334039,
        "relative_strength": -8.724474,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -60.650715,
        "energy": 58.873426,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.567981,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 20.65,
        "volume": 2579367,
        "typical_volume": 2618449.9,
        "trend": 20.724723,
        "fair_value": 19.355453,
        "relative_strength": -11.038141,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -54.842609,
        "energy": 48.914061,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}