{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38e10983-5a54-46ee-b067-4f38de47fdb3", "symbol": "MNXT", "name": "Mackenzie Bluewater Next Gen Growth ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.775, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.002, "architecture_energy": 47.089, "architecture_maturity": 62.17, "architecture_confidence": 79.682, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.44, "rotation_up": 43.6, "upward_expansion": 69.23, "deceleration": 91.44, "rotation_down": 29.27, "downward_expansion": 16.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.414, 24.397727, 24.1485, 23.620591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.200001, "trend_reference": 23.058833, "distance_from_trend": 0.092857, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.371086, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.126454, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.461321, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.160756, "excess_performance": 0.040334, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092857, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015897, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.126454, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055837, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034613, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040964, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.160756, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.966102, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 400, "relative_activity": 0.107239, "balance": 1.966102, "dry_up": 1.172922, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023748, "annualized_volatility": 0.169766, "from_high_reference": -0.006701, "from_low_reference": 0.245675 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.058833, "fair_value_reference": 22.371086, "structural_low": 20.23, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112567, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016709, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009129, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-13", "close": 20.247055, "volume": 20900, "typical_volume": null, "trend": 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24.561333, 24.412455, 23.743167, 23.280677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.110001, "volume": 13200, "typical_volume": 4340.0, "trend": 22.943833, "fair_value": 22.310501, "relative_strength": -5.788026, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.50418, "energy": 57.142533, "activity_lines": [ 24.434667, 24.384728, 23.845667, 23.358258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.91, "volume": 3500, "typical_volume": 4105.0, "trend": 22.972833, "fair_value": 22.326823, "relative_strength": -6.464002, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.076203, "energy": 46.0798, "activity_lines": [ 24.240667, 24.312091, 23.918548, 23.420591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.879999, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 3765.0, "trend": 23.007167, "fair_value": 22.342511, "relative_strength": -5.845844, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.13088, "energy": 32.670268, "activity_lines": [ 24.100667, 24.232909, 23.977095, 23.479118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.200001, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 3730.0, "trend": 23.058833, "fair_value": 22.371086, "relative_strength": -3.461321, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.001741, "energy": 47.089031, "activity_lines": [ 24.414, 24.397727, 24.1485, 23.620591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }