{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38e1a5f7-53e9-4838-85ce-b441d80049a4", "symbol": "BKCH", "name": "Global X Blockchain UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.391, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.671, "architecture_energy": 47.72, "architecture_maturity": 9.055, "architecture_confidence": 84.108, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.33, "rotation_up": 14.48, "upward_expansion": 23.12, "deceleration": 52.36, "rotation_down": 69.44, "downward_expansion": 52.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.200533, 13.941782, 14.79361, 14.472073 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.9, "trend_reference": 14.147667, "distance_from_trend": -0.088189, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.323378, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.249591, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.828866, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.062253, "excess_performance": -0.108639, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088189, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002826, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.249591, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.5017, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238289, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.36537, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062253, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.724411, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46207, "relative_activity": 1.046267, "balance": 0.724411, "dry_up": 0.984468, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133715, "annualized_volatility": 0.612145, "from_high_reference": -0.450245, "from_low_reference": 0.267938 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.147667, "fair_value_reference": 10.323378, "structural_low": 10.298, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018006, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.02557, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.256639, "worst_return": -0.23399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.413325, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.347953, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.067853, "worst_return": 0.184908, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.742749, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.602764, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.057414, "worst_return": 0.428084, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.700353, 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54058, "typical_volume": 44965.2, "trend": 14.209, "fair_value": 10.184654, "relative_strength": -24.804028, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.167149, "energy": 35.052334, "activity_lines": [ 13.9688, 15.111091, 15.134248, 14.633398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.322, "volume": 30280, "typical_volume": 43267.8, "trend": 14.236467, "fair_value": 10.233846, "relative_strength": -12.281171, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.134863, "energy": 29.096465, "activity_lines": [ 13.822, 14.839127, 15.116781, 14.640688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.942, "volume": 43366, "typical_volume": 42995.8, "trend": 14.219067, "fair_value": 10.277513, "relative_strength": -21.306888, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.09018, "energy": 33.392762, "activity_lines": [ 13.4268, 14.354945, 14.958457, 14.557174 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.9, "volume": 46207, "typical_volume": 44163.7, "trend": 14.147667, "fair_value": 10.323378, "relative_strength": -23.828866, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.671429, "energy": 47.719755, "activity_lines": [ 13.200533, 13.941782, 14.79361, 14.472073 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }