{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38e1e50b-a638-441f-883d-06e26f091238", "symbol": "002306", "name": "Cloud Live Technology Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.891, "architecture_energy": 78.896, "architecture_maturity": 18.609, "architecture_confidence": 88.906, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.49, "rotation_up": 10.11, "upward_expansion": 18.98, "deceleration": 37.47, "rotation_down": 73.35, "downward_expansion": 92.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.754667, 1.844909, 1.997619, 2.078387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.81, "trend_reference": 2.148667, "distance_from_trend": -0.157617, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.752372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.342385, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.376337, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.14218, "excess_performance": -0.14958, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157617, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006627, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.342385, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06595, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.14218, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.359164, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46747101, "relative_activity": 0.798068, "balance": 0.359164, "dry_up": 0.769444, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098598, "annualized_volatility": 0.41442, "from_high_reference": -0.30916, "from_low_reference": 0.160256 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.148667, "fair_value_reference": 2.752372, "structural_low": 1.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.011916, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.016284, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.374359, "worst_return": -0.167183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.036579, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.018497, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.636, "worst_return": -0.286082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.17883, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.084914, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.264706, "worst_return": -0.216625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2.111273, 2.199, 2.206086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.91, "volume": 40103305, "typical_volume": 75465372.1, "trend": 2.173667, "fair_value": 2.813526, "relative_strength": -16.033353, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.18464, "energy": 62.510195, "activity_lines": [ 1.996, 2.064182, 2.16719, 2.189097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.76, "volume": 40489900, "typical_volume": 72470451.6, "trend": 2.17, "fair_value": 2.797821, "relative_strength": -14.468073, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.58474, "energy": 81.407682, "activity_lines": [ 1.904, 1.998545, 2.122286, 2.162409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.68, "volume": 54283907, "typical_volume": 64628146.65, "trend": 2.167667, "fair_value": 2.782244, "relative_strength": -18.230917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.524662, "energy": 84.749858, "activity_lines": [ 1.816667, 1.928, 2.072905, 2.130796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.7, "volume": 38760901, "typical_volume": 60830525.65, "trend": 2.154667, "fair_value": 2.766923, "relative_strength": -15.663729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.288927, "energy": 86.422377, "activity_lines": [ 1.76, 1.872182, 2.028571, 2.100624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.81, "volume": 46747101, "typical_volume": 58575332.05, "trend": 2.148667, "fair_value": 2.752372, "relative_strength": -14.376337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.891193, "energy": 78.896146, "activity_lines": [ 1.754667, 1.844909, 1.997619, 2.078387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }