{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38e43a1b-162e-4301-b7d5-4cf1f082251c", "symbol": "PAWZ", "name": "PROSHARES PET CARE ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 66.883, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 13.132, "architecture_energy": 24.282, "architecture_maturity": 21.325, "architecture_confidence": 48.952, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.02, "rotation_up": 45.04, "upward_expansion": 33.94, "deceleration": 46.25, "rotation_down": 14.16, "downward_expansion": 42.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.29448, 49.477743, 49.127825, 49.892774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 51.695, "trend_reference": 51.292709, "distance_from_trend": 0.007843, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.507878, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015481, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.492339, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.07577, "excess_performance": -0.201395, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007843, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035713, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015481, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061816, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134923, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086836, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07577, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.056363, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7570, "relative_activity": 0.363914, "balance": 2.056363, "dry_up": 0.437442, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03259, "annualized_volatility": 0.221989, "from_high_reference": -0.120734, "from_low_reference": 0.128771 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.292709, "fair_value_reference": 52.507878, "structural_low": 45.797582, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.014592, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.01466, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.126734, "worst_return": -0.080528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020121, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.049128, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.034322, "worst_return": -0.155782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.067112, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.101146, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.024807, "worst_return": -0.257876, 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"2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038328, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042631, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056215, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004077, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 49.457755, "volume": 17076, "typical_volume": 35011.2, "trend": 50.002884, "fair_value": 61.574204, "relative_strength": -6.461003, "stage": 1, "regime": 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52.518627, "relative_strength": -15.221648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.984287, "energy": 22.511867, "activity_lines": [ 48.803026, 48.279682, 48.91933, 50.135339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.8989, "volume": 10436, "typical_volume": 21092.45, "trend": 51.564159, "fair_value": 52.502149, "relative_strength": -15.280969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.545534, "energy": 22.728429, "activity_lines": [ 48.951967, 48.472291, 48.832055, 49.949894 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.41, "volume": 11059, "typical_volume": 21266.35, "trend": 51.4262, "fair_value": 52.502469, "relative_strength": -13.161517, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.45039, "energy": 17.493904, "activity_lines": [ 49.487987, 48.886177, 48.913441, 49.875432 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.695, "volume": 7570, "typical_volume": 20801.6, "trend": 51.292709, "fair_value": 52.507878, "relative_strength": -13.492339, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.131952, "energy": 24.28199, "activity_lines": [ 50.29448, 49.477743, 49.127825, 49.892774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }