{ "ticker": { "uuid": "38e7a86e-af71-4b4b-9d28-570ce64c1dc6", "symbol": "JUNM", "name": "FT Vest U.S. Equity Max Buffer ETF - June", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.55, "architecture_energy": 66.956, "architecture_maturity": 49.827, "architecture_confidence": 72.313, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.87, "rotation_up": 65.57, "upward_expansion": 86.18, "deceleration": 61.91, "rotation_down": 23.85, "downward_expansion": 10.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.197173, 35.142062, 35.047711, 34.908864 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 35.36, "trend_reference": 34.73158, "distance_from_trend": 0.018094, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.987073, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071935, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.426812, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028077, "excess_performance": -0.097548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018094, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009775, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071935, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004706, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084268, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000558, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028077, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.366033, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6735, "relative_activity": 0.230889, "balance": 1.366033, "dry_up": 0.569776, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004231, "annualized_volatility": 0.020544, "from_high_reference": -0.00113, "from_low_reference": 0.056191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.73158, "fair_value_reference": 32.987073, "structural_low": 34.1004, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002991, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.0023, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.004577, "worst_return": -0.009453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.005349, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.005209, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.007327, "worst_return": 0.003372, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.024532, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.071458, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.024532, "worst_return": 0.024532, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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35.1, "volume": 44272, "typical_volume": 29009.95, "trend": 34.639397, "fair_value": 32.925794, "relative_strength": -6.165584, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.227164, "energy": 60.370606, "activity_lines": [ 35.092627, 35.062507, 34.940856, 34.807111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.06, "volume": 9116, "typical_volume": 29272.6, "trend": 34.66626, "fair_value": 32.945373, "relative_strength": -5.517689, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.985201, "energy": 56.270047, "activity_lines": [ 35.084647, 35.067604, 34.967335, 34.834247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.1594, "volume": 6358, "typical_volume": 29221.15, "trend": 34.69658, "fair_value": 32.965501, "relative_strength": -6.017993, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.839156, "energy": 56.832555, "activity_lines": [ 35.1138, 35.088409, 34.999994, 34.866063 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.36, "volume": 6735, "typical_volume": 29169.8, "trend": 34.73158, "fair_value": 32.987073, "relative_strength": -8.426812, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.550443, "energy": 66.956085, "activity_lines": [ 35.197173, 35.142062, 35.047711, 34.908864 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }